BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 19. Global demand for metallurgical (met) coal, crucial for steelmaking, saw modest growth in 2023 but is expected to contract in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
Met coal consumption rose by 2%, or 22 million tons (Mt), in 2023, reaching 1,097 Mt. However, a 1.9% decline is anticipated for 2024, reducing consumption to 1,076 Mt, largely driven by lower industrial activity in China.
China, the world’s largest consumer of met coal, accounted for the bulk of the increase in 2023, with demand rising by 4.1% (29 Mt) to 737 Mt. In 2024, the country is projected to lead the decline, offsetting gains in other regions such as India and Indonesia. India’s met coal consumption is forecast to rise due to steady growth in industrial activity, while Indonesia continues to expand its use for export-oriented coke ovens.
Looking ahead to 2027, global met coal consumption is forecast to fall to 1,019 Mt, a decrease of 47 Mt from current levels. China is expected to see the most significant drop, with a reduction of 63 Mt. In contrast, India and Indonesia are set to contribute to growth, with increases of 13 Mt and 8 Mt, respectively. Other major consumers, including Japan, Korea, and the EU, are projected to collectively reduce their demand by 10 Mt.
The adoption of innovative steel production methods, such as hydrogen-based processes, remains limited through the forecast period. This trend, combined with an increase in scrap steel recycling and evolving economic conditions, is shaping the future of met coal demand. While India and Indonesia represent bright spots, their growth is unlikely to offset declines elsewhere, reflecting a shifting landscape for the global steel and coal industries.