TASHKENT, Uzbekistan, June 28. International rating agency Fitch Ratings projects robust economic growth for Uzbekistan at 6.3 percent in both 2025 and 2026, well above the peer median of 3.8 percent and broadly consistent with 2024, Trend reports.
This growth outlook is supported by ongoing structural reforms, strong demand for key commodity exports—particularly gold—and increasing remittance inflows.
During the inaugural quarter of 2025, Uzbekistan's real GDP
exhibited a robust year-on-year growth of 6.8 percent,
predominantly propelled by the continuous upward trajectory within
the services sector.
Notwithstanding a pronounced economic interdependence with
Russia—representing approximately 13.7 percent of export volumes,
20.4 percent of import metrics, and a staggering 77 percent of
remittance flows as of the conclusion of 2024—Uzbekistan persists
in its adherence to the enforcement of Western sanctions.
Robust external buffers significantly enhance the nation’s economic
fortitude. The foreign currency reserves, encompassing precious
metals such as gold, escalated to $49.7 billion as of June 1, 2025,
reflecting an uptick from approximately $41 billion at the
conclusion of 2024. Fitch anticipates that reserves will adequately
encompass roughly 10 months of prevailing external disbursements
throughout 2025 and 2026, exceeding the ‘BB’ peer median by a
factor of more than two.
The augmentation of reserves was predominantly propelled by
escalating gold valuations, with gold constituting approximately 77
percent of the aggregate FX reserves, highlighting a degree of
susceptibility to variances in commodity market dynamics.
In summary, Uzbekistan's economic underpinnings exhibit robust
resilience, strategically equipping the nation to adeptly maneuver
through external adversities and maintain a trajectory of growth in
the forthcoming years.
