BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 19. Gold futures rose above the $4,500-per-ounce mark in Uzbekistan for the first time in two months, a development that could have broader implications for a country whose economy is heavily dependent on gold.
This was reflected in the statement by the KAP DEPO.
December gold futures briefly reached $4,500.9 an ounce on Aug. 12, gaining 1.34%. By the morning of August 13, prices had eased to around $4,450, but the metal remained near two-month highs.
The latest rally came after US inflation data showed core consumer prices rose 0.2% month on month in July, while the annual rate slowed to 2.5%, its lowest level since March 2021.
Softer inflation has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates, improving the appeal of gold, which does not generate interest income.
Gold has gained more than 8% since the beginning of August, while continued purchases by central banks have provided additional support for demand.
However, the metal remains below its record high of $5,626.8 an ounce, reached in late January.
Trend's analysis shows that the latest rally above $4,500 reflects a broader shift in expectations for US monetary policy. Softer US inflation has strengthened the case for lower interest rates, improving the appeal of gold after the metal came under pressure earlier this year from expectations of prolonged high borrowing costs.
Trend's calculations show that gold remains around 20% below its January record of $5,626.8 an ounce, despite gaining more than 8% since the beginning of August. The latest move therefore represents a significant recovery, but not a full reversal of the correction that followed the record high.
For Uzbekistan, movements in global gold prices have particular significance because gold remains the country's largest export commodity and accounts for the bulk of its international reserves. Changes in bullion prices can therefore affect both export revenues and the dollar value of the country's reserve assets.
Uzbekistan's exposure to the gold market extends beyond prices themselves. The country's major gold producer, Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Company (NMMC), produced 1.51 million troy ounces of gold in the first half of 2026, while continuing to invest in expanding mining and processing capacity. This provides Uzbekistan with a substantial physical production base, but also leaves the country's export earnings and reserve valuations sensitive to changes in international gold prices.
Recent Central Bank data illustrate this exposure. The value of Uzbekistan's gold reserves declined by $156 million in May as gold prices weakened, despite an increase in physical gold holdings. This means that even when the country maintains or increases the amount of gold it holds, changes in international prices can have an immediate effect on the reported dollar value of its reserves.
At the same time, continued purchases by global central banks are providing structural support for bullion, potentially limiting the downside from shifts in investor sentiment. Expectations of lower US interest rates could provide an additional catalyst if inflation continues to moderate.
In Trend's assessment, the return of gold above $4,500 is particularly important for Uzbekistan because higher bullion prices can support both the value of its reserves and the dollar value of gold exports. While NMMC's strong production and ongoing investment provide a buffer against market volatility, the country's substantial exposure to gold means that the trajectory of international prices will remain an important factor for its external-sector performance.
