BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 9. Kazakhstan’s economic expansion is expected to moderate in the coming year, according to the latest Asian Development Bank (ADB) outlook, Trend reports.
Mining growth, which benefits from the recent Tengiz oilfield expansion, is projected to peak at 7.7% in 2025 before slowing to 3.9% in 2026 as the country approaches maximum oil production capacity. Both forecasts are slightly higher than ADB’s April projections of 7.2% and 4.3%.
The outlook assumes Kazakhstan’s raw material exports will face minimal tariff constraints and no further restrictions under the OPEC+ oil production agreement. Manufacturing growth is supported by state programs, with output expected to rise 4.8% in 2025 and 5.2% in 2026, above previous estimates.
Growth in services is expected to be slightly weaker, as higher inflation reduces consumer purchasing power. Meanwhile, government infrastructure modernization initiatives are set to boost construction growth to 13.0% this year, significantly surpassing the April forecast of 9.8%.
The ADB outlook highlights a gradual transition from resource-driven growth toward a broader economic expansion supported by manufacturing, services, and infrastructure investment.