BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 1. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has forecasted steady growth for Georgia’s economy over the next two years.
Data obtained by Trend from the bank shows that Georgia's real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase by 5.5% in 2026, followed by a growth of 5.0% in 2027. This growth is bolstered by significant contributions from key sectors and ongoing investment initiatives.
The report highlights that the Georgian economy grew by 7.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, although the pace of growth gradually slowed from 9.9% in the first quarter to 7.4% in the second quarter and 6.4% in the third quarter. The expansion was driven primarily by the services sector, with significant contributions from information and communication technologies (ICT), education, transportation, and logistics.
"Domestic demand was supported by rising wages and active credit growth. Overall inflation exceeded the central bank’s target of 3%, averaging 4.0% in 2025. The National Bank of Georgia kept the key interest rate at 8.0% throughout the year, expecting inflation to return to its target level," the EBRD noted.
The bank also emphasized improvements in Georgia’s external position. The current account deficit narrowed from 5.2% of GDP a year earlier to 3.5% of GDP in the third quarter of 2025. Official foreign currency reserves recovered from a minimum of $4.1 billion in October 2024 to $6.2 billion by December 2025, covering approximately four months of imports. Public debt fell to 34.9% of GDP by September 2025, the lowest level in a decade, due to strong nominal GDP growth and a stable exchange rate.
Looking ahead, the EBRD report suggests that flagship investment projects in real estate, transport, and renewable energy could further boost Georgia’s growth, potentially pushing GDP growth beyond the projected 5.5% in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027. However, ongoing tensions with key economic partners may pose challenges to the country’s economic outlook.