BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept.15
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The global gasoline demand is set to rise from 23 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2020 to 25 mbd in 2021 and 26.1 mbd in 2022, Trend reports with reference to the US JP Morgan Bank.
The Bank also expects year-on-year increase Q3 and Q4 2021, when gasoline demand will rise from 24.3 mbd and 23.9 mbd to 25.8 mbd and 25.7 mbd, respectively.
The demand for gasoline is expected to amount to 25.6 mbd in September, then to stabilize at 25.5 mbd in October and November, before peaking for the year at 26.1 mbd in December.
The demand is expected to fall again in early 2022 with 25.3 mbd in January, then rising to 26 mbd in February, 25.6 mbd in March, 26.3 mbd in April, 26.2 mbd in May, 26.7 mbd in June, 26.4 mbd in July, 27.2 mbd in August, 26.1 mbd in September, 25.8 mbd in October, 25.9 mbd in November and 26.3 mbd in December. The quarterly forecasts for 2022 is as follows: 25.6 mbd in Q1, 26.4 mbd in Q2, 26.6 mbd in Q3 and 26 mbd in Q4.
Meanwhile, Fitch Solutions notes that the recovery in gasoline demand over 2021 will continue to be predominantly driven by countries with relatively high vaccination rates (i.e. the US or EU countries) and some of the EMs including China. US gasoline demand still has some space to grow: as of June 2021, gasoline consumption reached 94 percent of pre-pandemic levels (2019). “That said, over late Q321 and into Q421 we expect the seasonal effect to wane, slowing growth. At the same time, we note that the expected strong production of fuels will likely stymie strong price hikes over H221.”
Fitch Solutions recognizes some downside risks to our current near-term gasoline price forecast stemming from a severe demand collapse amid the spread of new Covid-19 variants, as well as a robust recovery in crude oil production over H221, driven by US shale and a return of Iranian barrels, weighing on oil prices.
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