BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 14
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The growth of low-carbon hydrogen crowds out so-called grey and brown hydrogen, which is produced from natural gas and coal without the use of carbon capture and storage, Trend reports with reference to bp’s Energy Outlook 2022 which covers the period until 2050.
“At the beginning of the outlook, the cost of producing blue hydrogen is lower than for green hydrogen in most parts of the world. But this cost advantage is gradually eroded over the outlook as improvements in technology and manufacturing efficiency reduce the price of both wind and solar power and electrolysers. In contrast, the more limited scope for gains in technology and manufacturing efficiency in hydrogen production from natural gas (and coal) with CO2 capture means the cost of blue hydrogen remains relatively flat over the outlook,” bp said.
The report says that the strong policy support provided to green hydrogen over the initial part of the outlook, combined with the sharp falls in its relative costs, means green hydrogen accounts for an increasing share of low-carbon hydrogen production in Accelerated and Net Zero. In 2030, green hydrogen accounts for around 55 percent of lowcarbon hydrogen in the two scenarios, with that share increasing to around 65 percent by 2050.
“Most of the remaining low-carbon hydrogen is provided by blue hydrogen, although there is also a small amount of hydrogen produced from bioenergy combined with CCS (BECCS) by 2050 in both scenarios. In addition to being cost competitive in many parts of the world, the production of blue hydrogen in Accelerated and Net Zero helps enable the expansion of low-carbon hydrogen without relying solely on renewable power. For example, to substitute green for blue hydrogen in Net Zero would require wind and solar capacity to increase by close to 850GW per annum on average in the 2030s and 2040s, compared with a little over 700GW in Net Zero and a historical high of around 250GW,” said the company.
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