BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 26. Higher oil and gas prices are set to weigh on energy-importing nations while boosting revenues for exporters such as Azerbaijan, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in its latest regional economic update, Trend reports.
Azerbaijan exported 3.6 million tons of crude oil and bituminous petroleum products from January through February 2026, generating $1.7 billion in revenue, according to the data from the State Customs Committee.
Energy trade deficits, calculated at pre-conflict prices, are particularly large for Moldova, Jordan, Tunisia, Senegal, North Macedonia, Morocco, and Egypt, ranging from 5 to 11 percent of GDP. Some of these economies—including Lebanon, Egypt, Senegal, and Morocco—also have high oil intensity, meaning they consume more barrels of oil per unit of GDP.
In contrast, oil and gas trade surpluses are projected at 11 to 39 percent of GDP for exporters including Azerbaijan, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Nigeria, although Iraq is currently unable to fully export oil. “Commodity exports are much more concentrated than commodity imports, and the fortunes of exporting economies are closely correlated with the prices of the commodities they export,” the report said. “For importers, correlations between economic performance and energy prices are typically weaker.”
A sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices even higher. “In the short term, the demand for oil is inelastic. The market could clear at price levels of US$180 per barrel, with many analysts predicting spikes in the range of US$150–200 per barrel,” the report said. Over the longer term, elevated prices are expected to reduce demand as industrial users adopt energy-efficient solutions and consumers cut back on discretionary spending, with the market potentially stabilizing around US$100 per barrel even if Gulf supply remains severely curtailed.
The EBRD also cautioned that a sustained oil price of US$100 per barrel could suppress global growth by at least 0.4 percentage points and push global inflation up by more than 1.5 percentage points, factoring in disruptions to supply chains for chemicals and metals.