BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 11. The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) could provide a long-term boost to Armenia’s economy, says Fitch.
“Several large-scale infrastructure investment projects could provide further long-term upside including the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity,” notes the rating agency.
Fitch analysts also point out that the US-sponsored peace framework with Azerbaijan has significantly reduced the risks of near-term military escalation, but uncertainty remains over the successful completion of the process, including the possibility of a constitutional referendum.
“Additionally, increased diplomatic tensions with Russia create risks for the Armenian economy, particularly given its significant dependence on Russian energy imports,” the agency said.
Fitch noted that Russia remains Armenia’s largest trade partner, supplying more than 80% of the country’s natural gas imports on preferential terms. Russia accounts for 35% of Armenia’s goods exports and has recently introduced import and transit restrictions on Armenian food products, while also threatening to end preferential energy and rough diamond trade in response to Armenia’s efforts to advance its European Union accession path, says the rating agency.
“As gas meets 61% of energy needs, a supply cutoff or price increase could negatively affect macroeconomic, fiscal, and external balances,” Fitch said.
The ratings agency expects inflation in Armenia to average 4.4% in 2026 before gradually returning to the Central Bank of Armenia’s 3% target.
“The upward inflation trend predates the Iran war, driven by food, services, and universal healthcare costs,” Fitch said, adding that Russian import restrictions could increase domestic supply of some goods and have a disinflationary effect.
Fitch expects the Central Bank of Armenia to temporarily raise its main policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%.
On August 8, 2025, following a trilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan signed a joint declaration on establishing peace between Baku and Yerevan and restoring transport connectivity between mainland Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The project was named the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity."
In January 2026, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met in Washington and presented a framework program for the implementation of the TRIPP project.
According to a joint statement by Mirzoyan and Rubio, Armenia intends to approve and support the establishment of the TRIPP Development Company, which will be responsible for developing the TRIPP project. The company will be granted the right to implement the project for an initial period of 49 years. Yerevan plans to offer Washington a 74 percent stake in the TRIPP Development Company, while retaining 26 percent for itself.
