BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 9. Fuel shortages in Russia, caused by a decline in oil refining following a series of attacks on refineries, are gradually spreading beyond the domestic market and beginning to affect Central Asian nations.
On July 8, Russian authorities imposed a temporary ban on diesel fuel exports until July 31. The restriction does not apply to shipments under intergovernmental agreements; however, the decision itself served as yet another confirmation of the tense situation in the market.
''The situation in the fuel market remains tense,'' Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said earlier.
According to Kpler, in June 2026, oil refining at Russian refineries fell to about 4.1 million barrels per day, the lowest level in recent years. Gasoline production was approximately 25% lower than a year earlier, while summer consumption exceeds output volumes.
Russia remains a key supplier of gasoline to a number of Central Asian countries. In 2025, approximately 2.6 million metric tons of gasoline were exported by rail, of which 526,000 metric tons went to Kyrgyzstan, 510,000 metric tons to Uzbekistan, and 406,000 metric tons to Tajikistan. This is precisely why the effects of the shortage spread so quickly throughout the region.
Kyrgyzstan: The Most vulnerable country
Kyrgyzstan remains the most vulnerable country in the region. The republic obtains more than 90% of its imported gasoline from Russia.
In the period from January through May 2026 alone, Russian supplies totaled more than 251,000 metric tons of automotive gasoline, 235,100 metric tons of diesel fuel, and 48,150 metric tons of jet fuel. By comparison, domestic production during the same period reached only 129,200 metric tons of gasoline and 118,200 metric tons of diesel, which is not yet sufficient to fully offset a potential reduction in imports.
In late June, the Kyrgyzstan Oil Traders Association reported a shortage of AI-95 and AI-98 gasoline due to restricted supplies from Russia and a seasonal increase in demand.
The authorities have begun an urgent search for alternative sources. China has confirmed the delivery of 3,000 metric tons of jet fuel and is negotiating the supply of 5,000 metric tons of diesel fuel. Belarus is preparing to supply another 3,000 metric tons of jet fuel and about 10,000 metric tons of diesel fuel.
''We expect deliveries from China within 10 days, and from Belarus—possibly within 15–20 days,'' First Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers of Kyrgyzstan Daniyar Amangeldiev said.
In addition, Kazakhstan is considering the possibility of exporting petroleum products to Kyrgyzstan, although the volume of potential shipments is not yet comparable to that of Russia.
Uzbekistan: Record price hikes despite available reserves
In 2025, Uzbekistan received approximately 510,000 metric tons of gasoline from Russia. From January through April 2026, total imports reached 568,700 metric tons, valued at $327.1 million, more than double the figure for the same period last year.
At the same time, 502,200 metric tons of automotive gasoline were produced domestically from January through May.
The main manifestation of the Russian crisis was a sharp rise in exchange prices. By June 29, the price of AI-92 on the Uzbek Republican Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange reached a historic high of 13.919 million sum per metric ton. Over the course of the month, gasoline prices rose by approximately 11.8%, with the sharpest spike occurring between June 4 and 8, when the price rose by 10.5% in just four days.
Despite this, the authorities emphasize that reserves are available.
''I can confidently say that our reserves are sufficient for the next two to three months,'' First Deputy Minister of Energy of Uzbekistan, Umid Mamadaminov declared.
According to him, the country’s production of petroleum products exceeds 1.2 million metric tons, and private imports add another 600,000–700,000 metric tons, which is sufficient to meet domestic demand.
At the same time, the official acknowledged that the current geopolitical situation underscores the importance of energy security and requires not only the accumulation of reserves but also the expansion of domestic production capacity.
Tajikistan: Diesel shortage already being felt at gas stations
Tajikistan imports about 84% of its petroleum products from Russia. In 2025, the country imported more than 1.21 million metric tons of petroleum products worth approximately $959.3 million.
In early July 2026, local media outlets announced a diesel fuel shortage in Dushanbe and several regions. Some gas stations stopped selling diesel, while others imposed restrictions, limiting purchases to no more than 20 liters per customer.
The price of diesel reached 13.9–15.5 somoni per liter in the capital and about 15.6 somoni in certain regions.
Tajikistan has begun negotiations with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and other potential suppliers of aviation fuel.
''We are currently gathering information on the availability of fuel in order to conclude an agreement and arrange for its import,'' head of the Civil Aviation Agency of Tajikistan, Habibullo Nazardzoda stated.
According to him, Tajik fuel companies have been searching for alternative suppliers for about a week.
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan: Potential donors in the region
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are not currently facing domestic shortages of motor fuel.
Kazakhstan meets demand through its own refineries and has petroleum product reserves exceeding 1.1 million metric tons. However, the country is already feeling indirect pressure, consumption along its borders is rising, the risks of gray-market fuel exports are increasing, and neighboring countries are requesting additional supplies.
Turkmenistan, which possesses significant refining capacity, is also viewed as an alternative fuel source for the region.
Nevertheless, the capabilities of both countries are limited by domestic demand, existing contracts, and logistics, so they can only partially offset the reduction in Russian supplies.
The current crisis has served as a clear demonstration to the countries of Central Asia of the risks of excessive dependence on a single supplier. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and, to a certain extent, Uzbekistan have already faced supply disruptions, rising prices, and the need to urgently seek alternative fuel sources.
Even if the shortage in Russia proves to be temporary, it will likely accelerate a reevaluation of the energy policies of the region’s countries. China is emerging as the most likely long-term direction for diversification, as it is actively expanding its transportation infrastructure as part of the ''Belt and Road'' initiative and possesses significant oil refining capacity.
Thus, the Russian fuel crisis is already affecting not only the Russian domestic market but also the entire regional energy security system in Central Asia.
