BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 9. Azerbaijan's current account surplus could reach $5.5 billion by the end of the year, Aliyar Mammadyarov. First Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan said, Trend's correspondent reports from the event.
Mammadyarov made the statement at the event titled “Unlocking Tourism's Potential to Drive Economic Growth and Diversification.”
According to him, despite all these challenges, Azerbaijan's external position remains favorable.
''The first-quarter current account surplus was $1.7 billion dollars, or 9.5% of GDP. We expect around 5.5 billion dollars in 2026. Strategic foreign exchange reserves have reached 85.8 billion dollars. They provide a robust buffer against external shocks and further support the manat's stability,'' he noted.
In addition, Mammadyarov emphasized that, in terms of prices, annual inflation was 5.6 % in May, within our target band of 4% plus or minus 2 %. Inflation is mainly driven by external supply-side factors. Our May forecast puts inflation at 5.9 % in 2026 and 4.5 % in 2027.
''The financial sector remains sound and stable. Capital adequacy stands at 17%, liquidity coverage at 155%. These levels substantially exceed the required norms. Non-performing loans stood at just 2.9%. Dollarization has fallen markedly to 13.7% on loans and 27% on resident deposits,'' he stressed.
Mamamadyarov further noted, that, at this stage, three trends toward rebalancing are evident in Azerbaijan’s economy.
''First, the non-oil sector is playing an ever-larger role in driving growth, gradually reshaping the structure of the economy. Second, the sources of growth are shifting from non-tradable sectors, such as construction, toward tradables, such as transportation and logistics, information technology and non-oil industry. Third, growth is becoming less dependent on public spending and increasingly driven by private activity,'' he emphasized.
Furthermore, the official stated that: Our outlook remains positive, according to the Central Bank's May forecast, total GDP is projected to grow by 1.1% this year and by 3.2% in 2027, with non-oil growth of 3.2 and 4.7 percent, respectively.
''Today's report underscores that the next stage of development will depend increasingly on diversification. Tourism stands out with significant untapped potential. On the other hand, Azerbaijan’s unique location, rich cultural heritage, diverse natural landscapes and improving infrastructure provide strong foundations for a competitive, sustainable tourism industry.
Supported by improved air connectivity, visa facilitation and targeted destination promotion, tourism earnings have grown by an average of 38% annually over the last three years. In the first quarter of 2026, tourism service exports accounted for 21% of total non-oil service exports.
It is important to note that the report not only identifies emerging opportunities but also offers practical recommendations which are improving transport and information connectivity, investing in the development of regional tourism destinations, fostering greater private sector participation and developing human capital. These proposals are closely aligned with our long-term priorities and will form the basis for future policy discussions in this area.'' he concluded.
