Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept. 16 / Trend E.Tariverdiyeva /
The Heritage Foundation's leading expert on Eurasia and a member of the Trend Expert Council, Ariel Cohen, believes that the United States should boost its profile as a co-chair in the OSCE Minsk Group.
"Over the past 1.5 years, the United States was quite passive in the region and allowed Moscow to take the lead on security issues in the area, including Karabakh," Cohen wrote Trend in an e-mail.
The Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers will meet next week in the United States, OSCE Minsk Group U.S. Co-Chair Robert Bradtke said in an interview with the BBC this week. He added that the co-chairs have "new ideas."
Cohen stressed that Russia recently signed a protocol renewing its lease on a military base in Gyumri, Armenia, which testifies to Moscow's growing influence in the region.
"This increases Russian involvement in protecting Armenia and shifting the balance in the region," he said.
The agreement was signed between Russia and Armenia, and renews Moscow's lease on the base for 24 years. The agreement was undersigned by the Armenian and Russian defense ministers.
Russia's 102nd Military Base has been accommodated in northern Armenia since 1995. The base operates in the framework of the CIS United Air Defense System. It is managed by the Russian troops in Transcaucasia - Russia's North Caucasian Military District.
However, it is worth noting that the United States has little to offer for the negotiation process as a mediator, Cohen said, adding that it would be desirable if Washington and Moscow could convince Yerevan to return the seven occupied regions under Baku's jurisdiction.
"But if Moscow plays along and exerts pressure on Armenia, I would be very surprised," he said. "Finally, it will also help to finally nominate and approve a U.S. ambassador to Baku."
"So, most probably, there will be more meeting and talks, but not as much substantive progress," Cohen said.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992, including Nagorno Karabakh and the seven surrounding districts.
Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France, and the United States - are currently holding the peace negotiations.
Armenia has not yet implemented the U.N. Security Council's four resolutions on the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding regions.