BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 16. Azerbaijan’s socio-political landscape has taken a turn, with recent investigative materials and media reports shedding light on Ramiz Mehdiyev and the informal political network that has sprung up around him. The emerging picture points not only to the activities of specific individuals but also to the existence of a long-established shadow influence system that continues to operate in various forms. Mehdiyev is the linchpin of this system, while characters like Ali Karimli, Ganimat Zahid, Fuad Gahramanli, and Mammad Ibrahim are cast as the go-betweens in the political and informational arena.
Although Mehdiyev, who held one of the most influential positions in state administration for many years, seemed to step back from the political arena after losing his official clout, his shadow still loomed large. Instead, it was said to be reshuffled and kept afloat through different avenues.
The persistent climate of dissatisfaction in media and public discourse in recent years, along with coordinated criticism targeting reforms and the country’s leadership, is presented as a deliberate strategy rather than coincidence—reflecting the unwillingness of former power holders to accept new realities.
This activity has taken the form of passive resistance rather than open political struggle. It's not about rallies or direct calls to action but about quiet yet ongoing manipulation in the information space. Reforms are systematically discredited, new governance mechanisms portrayed as unreliable, and distrust toward decision-making centers cultivated in society—an approach characterized as a classic destabilization strategy that can be more dangerous than overt confrontation.
Investigative materials further indicate that the web surrounding Mehdiyev is fueled not just by local political discontent but also by overlapping interests with outside international foreign players. Alleged links influenced by the special services of a neighboring country are said to have strengthened the network, turning it into part of broader regional geopolitical dynamics. Such internal channels of influence are considered highly valuable for external actors, as they enable a country to be steered from within rather than from outside.
International political practice describes this pattern of behavior as “latent influence preservation," that is, maintaining networks of influence after retirement. Under this model, a figure may lose formal authority but retain real leverage through informal media control, loyal cadres within state structures, and strategic intervention in public opinion. One of the most concerning aspects of this shadow mechanism is its alleged control over public discourse. Despite remaining outside formal power, Mehdiyev and his network are portrayed as staying active in the information space, facilitating the circulation of narratives aligned with foreign interests. For Mehdiyev, Ali Karimli and his political circle were a key cog in this intricate machinery. The lost leverage within the state was compensated for through the opposition and the media.
The main paradox presented is that a group positioning itself as opposition is depicted as a continuation of the old system. Their main problem is not the current government but the reforms being carried out because the reforms are destroying the network of patronage and influence that Mehdiyev has built over the years and are dismantling the informal governance built on personal loyalties. Consequently, resistance to change is framed in the rhetoric of democracy and freedom while, in essence, aiming to preserve previous positions of influence.
Overall, the unfolding situation portrays Mehdiyev and those around him not merely as political actors but as remnants of an outdated governance model operating in the shadows. The ongoing investigation is characterized not only as a matter of legal accountability but also as a stage in the state’s effort to cleanse itself of entrenched informal influence because the issue is about not just the destiny of individual figures but the dismantling of a system seeking to govern the state’s future from behind the scenes.
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