BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 12. The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, says the report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
According to the report, before the war, around 20 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil and petroleum products flowed through the Strait of Hormuz, but now that flow has nearly come to a halt.
The report noted that with limited capacity available to bypass the crucial waterway and storage filling up, Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 mb/d.
The report highlighted that without a swift reestablishment of shipping activities, anticipated supply losses are likely to escalate.
The IEA's projections indicate a significant downturn in global oil supply, expected to decrease by eight mb/d this March.
"Curtailments in the Middle East will be partly offset by higher output from non-OPEC+ producers, Kazakhstan and Russia, following disruptions at the start of the year. While the extent of losses will depend on the duration of the conflict and disruptions to flows, we estimate the global oil supply to rise by 1.1 mb/d in 2026 on average, with non-OPEC+ producers accounting for the entire increase.
The conflict is also having a significant impact on global product markets, with export flows through the Strait at a near standstill. Gulf producers exported 3.3 mb/d of refined products and 1.5 mb/d of LPG in 2025. More than 3 mb/d of refining capacity in the region has already shut down due to attacks and a lack of viable export outlets. Runs elsewhere will be increasingly limited due to feedstock availability," the report said.
At the same time, the report noted that IEA member countries unanimously agreed on March 11 to make 400 mb of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market to address disruptions stemming from the war in the Middle East.
"Global observed oil stocks were 8,210 billion in January, their highest level since February 2021. The OECD accounted for 50%, Chinese crude stocks 15%, and oil on water 25%, with the remainder in other non-OECD countries," added the report.
Stay up-to-date with more news on Trend News Agency's WhatsApp channel