BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 28. Renewable energy capacity in the Middle East is set to skyrocket in the coming years, with green energy sources surpassing fossil fuel usage in the power sector by 2040, according to research made by Rystad Energy, Trend reports.
As such, solar PV is predicted to become the dominant energy source, expected to account for more than half of the region’s power supply by mid-century, a significant rise from just 2 percent last year.
Power demand in the region is projected to reach approximately 2,000 TWh by 2050, up from the current 1,200 TWh, driven by strong industrial development, population growth, and the electrification of transport and other sectors. Currently, the residential sector consumes 40 percent of the total power, followed by the commercial sector at 26 percent, and the industrial sector at 22 percent. The remaining 12 percent is attributed to sectors such as agriculture and transport.
As of the end of 2023, the Middle East's power generation remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels, which comprise 93 percent of the total energy mix, the research noted. Renewables account for 3 percent, with nuclear and hydro each making up 2 percent. Natural gas powers nearly three-quarters of the region's electricity generation, accounting for 40 percent of the overall gas demand. By 2030, around 30 percent of the region's installed capacity is expected to come from renewable sources, with the potential to rise to 75 percent by 2050.
Furthermore, battery energy storage is projected to expand significantly in the 2030s, mitigating the intermittency of solar and wind power and facilitating a smooth energy transition. Despite the limited hydropower potential and low gas prices, the Middle East will continue to rely on gas-fired power as a primary source and later as a transitional fuel. The share of gas in the power generation mix is anticipated to decrease from 74 percent at the end of 2023 to 46 percent in 2040 and 22 percent by 2050.