ALMATY, Kazakhstan, December 18. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) expects the National Bank of Kazakhstan's base rate to fall to around 14% by the end of 2026, Alexey Kuznetsov, Head of the Research Department, said at the presentation of the report “Macroeconomic Forecast 2026-2028”, Trend’s special correspondent reports.
He noted that the bank estimates inflation will slow to 9.7% year on year by the end of 2026, peaking from March through April. The growth in the VAT rate from 12% to 16%, effective January 1, will escalate inflation pressure in the first quarter. However, price growth will remain under control thanks to monetary policy measures already taken, he explained, the authorities' decision to suspend increases in utility tariffs, and the introduction of partial price regulation, and The cumulative effect of these measures will facilitate a reversion of inflation towards a consistent deflationary path.
"Against the backdrop of elevated inflation, we believe the base rate will be maintained at 18% until the second quarter of 2026. As inflation peaks, the regulator will begin to gradually ease monetary conditions: we expect the rate to decline to about 14% by the end of 2026," Kuznetsov added.
The EDB is a multilateral development bank designed to promote economic growth in member states, expand trade and economic ties between them, and develop integration processes in the Eurasian space through investment activities. The EDB has seven member countries: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
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