Azerbaijan, Baku, May 10 / Trend V. Zhavoronkova/
There is no "suitable mediator" which will be able to solve the water dispute between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the U.S. expert on Central Asia Bruce Pannier believes.
Some observers suppose that only foreign mediators will manage to solve the Central Asian water problem, which most of all harm the relations between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Tajikistan appealed the European Union to invest in the construction of the Roghun hydropower plant's construction, which contradicted Uzbek interests.
"I do not think the EU will give any money for Roghun, though Brussels may pledge funds for other, smaller HPP projects in Tajikistan," Pannier, expert of Radio Liberty, wrote Trend via e-mail.
He believes EU will do nothing that would make it an enemy to Tashkent or Dushanbe.
Also the EU has another reason not to help Tajikistan, which is common with the reason of the U.S - troops in Afghanistan, the expert said.
"The U.S. currently is focused on security in Afghanistan and the wider inner Asian region and would not wish to be seen as siding with any Central Asian country in a regional dispute, Pannier believes. -Washington needs the cooperation of all the Central Asian states."
Russia, he said, is also not suitable for the role of mediator. Russia is not helping with Roghun now, but RUSAL was a partner in the project just a few years ago until disagreements with Tajikistan caused the Russian company to pull out of the project, he said.
Pannier added that the Russian government seems to be using Roghun for its own purposes in Central Asia.
"If the Kremlin wants to pressure Uzbekistan some Russian official will make vague comments about Roghun being a safe project or hinting Russian companies might be interested in joining the project again", he said.- "If the Kremlin wants to pressure Tajikistan, Russian officials side with Uzbekistan on concerns about environmental consequences from Roghun."
Iran also does not look like a mediator because is seen as very pro-Tajik and Tehran has encountered numerous difficulties with Uzbekistan in trying to send construction equipment and materials to Tajikistan via Uzbekistan for building the Sangtuda-2 HPP, Pannier believes.
"China does not want to be involved in Central Asia's regional politics at all except as it is connected to importing Central Asian energy resources and ensuring there is no Islamic threat in Central Asia that could influence the situation with Muslims in the western Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region," he said.
Pannier believes that helping Tajikistan with Roghun means making Uzbekistan an enemy while highlighting possible negative consequences from Roghun means making Tajikistan an enemy.
"That being the case, no country or international organization seems anxious to get involved," expert said.
If the Roghun hydropower plant (HPP) is completed it would benefit Tajikistan in two ways, he added.
Firstly, expert said it would provide badly needed additional power for Tajikistan that and should bring an accompanying boost in popularity to the Tajik government.
Tajik people have endured some miserable winters with rationed electricity and even in the summer the situation with electricity, particularly in northern Tajikistan, is far from good, he stressed.
Second, Tajikistan is looking to change from being an energy importer to an energy exporter and its market would be Afghanistan and Pakistan, Pannier believes. He added both those countries are also badly in need for more electricity.
"The immense Roghun HPP would be able to ease the problem with domestic supplies of electricity and also, through electricity exports, bring some revenue to Tajikistan's state coffers," expert said.
Uzbekistan by-turn would permanently lose one of its customers for natural gas, he added.
Tajikistan has been dependent on Uzbekistan for all its natural gas imports since the fall of the USSR and it has been reducing the amount of natural gas it purchases from Uzbekistan to practically nothing now, or at least that is what Tajik officials claim, Pannies raid.
But for the Uzbek government, Uzbekistan's natural gas exports to Tajikistan have proven one of the most effective means of pressuring the Tajik government, he said.
Roghun is the largest of Tajikistan's HPP projects but there are many more involving medium- and small-scale HPPs that also aim to meet local needs and generate enough electricity for export, Pannier believes.
"Most experts agree that Tajikistan has not tapped even 10 percent of its hydropower potential and of course, hydropower is a renewable energy resource," he said.