Azerbaijan, Baku, May 1 / Trend A.Badalova/
The South East Europe Pipeline (SEEP) project remains a strong contender in a race to transport Azerbaijani gas to Central European countries and has more chances to win the competition with Nabucco gas pipeline project, analysts believe.
According to political risk analyst at Menas Associates in London, focusing on the Caspian energy and political issues, Alexander Jackson, the consortium of Azerbaijani Shah Deniz field development is very unlikely to choose Nabucco project, which is currently suffering a lack of political and commercial support.
"SEEP remains the strongest contender," Jackson wrote Trend in an e-mail.
The Shah Deniz consortium which currently considers several options to export gas to the European markets waits for the formal submission from the projects on Central European pipeline route. For this route the consortium considers two options - SEEP and Nabucco West, which envisages the construction of a pipeline from the Turkish-Bulgarian border to the Austrian Baumgarten. The choice between these two projects will be made in June.
The final decision on a pipeline route to export Azerbaijani gas to the European markets is expected in 2013.
Professor of International Relations at the American University of Paris, Terence Murphy also believes that SEEP, proposed by BP, has more chances to be chosen by Shah Deniz consortium.
"I think that MOL's withdrawal from the Nabucco project is just a sensible recognition that Nabucco is not going to happen," Murphy wrote Trend in an e-mail.
He stressed that Nabucco West is a revamped project, and TANAP (Trans Anatolian Pipeline) dealt a dead blow to original concept of the project.
SEEP proposed by BP envisages gas transportation through existing or expanded infrastructure of Turkey to the Balkan Peninsula, and then the distribution of 10 bln cubic meters to small buyers, including Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia and others via the existing gas pipelines system.
Nabucco gas pipeline project is designed to transport gas from the Caspian region and Middle East to the European countries. Last week Hungarian MOL, which is a 100-percent owner of FGSZ Natural Gas Transmission Company - one of the six shareholders in Nabucco consortium, cost serious doubts about the project and said it is ready to sell its share in it.
The project's other partners include Bulgarian Energy Holding, Romanian Transgaz, Turkish Botas, Austrian OMV and German RWE.