BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 11. Fitch Ratings has flagged significant uncertainties in Naftogaz’s gas production and financial outlook for 2025, amid escalating attacks on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, Trend reports via Fitch.
“Gas production continues, although Naftogaz does not disclose the share of non-operational assets,” Fitch said. The company plans to increase the share of natural gas purchased on the market from 11% in 2024 to 33% in 2025, reflecting the impact of infrastructure damage and limited domestic production.
Fitch noted that forecasts for 2025 remain highly uncertain, driven by Naftogaz’s production capabilities and actual demand. “Operating metrics as well as the financial profile are expected to be far weaker in 2025 than in 2024,” the agency added, highlighting the risks from attacks targeting Naftogaz’s offtakers as well as its own assets.
The escalation comes after Ukraine chose not to renew its gas transit agreement with Gazprom past 2024, prompting Russia to intensify strikes on Ukrainian gas infrastructure. The attacks have caused significant damage to Naftogaz assets, forcing the company to greatly increase gas imports, financed through cash reserves, loans, and grants.
Despite these challenges, Naftogaz has made timely debt payments in 2025. However, Fitch emphasized the company faces a large principal repayment of EUR689 million in July 2026, which could further strain its financial position. The ability to service debt will depend in part on whether additional Russian attacks disrupt production capacity.
Fitch also highlighted the potential need for another restructuring of bonds maturing in 2026 due to elevated funding requirements for gas purchases, noting that this is already factored into the company’s rating.
“Naftogaz remains under significant operational and financial pressure, and continued security risks represent a substantial challenge to both its production and debt repayment capacity,” Fitch concluded.