BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 25. Kazakhstan's foreign trade turnover reached $44.87 billion from January through April 2026, marking a nominal increase of 7.9% compared to the same period in 2025.
This analysis, prepared by Trend based on data from the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, indicates that while the overall trade volume is rising, the structure of the trade balance necessitates a deeper transformation, as import growth (up 11.3% to $20.86 billion) is currently outpacing export growth (up 5% to $24.01 billion).
Trade with EAEU member states plays a significant role, with total turnover increasing by 13.3% to reach $9.87 billion. However, a notable imbalance has emerged: imports from EAEU countries surged by 24.1%, while Kazakhstani exports to these markets declined by 7.9%. Within this bloc Russia remains the primary partner, accounting for 87.6% of the total mutual trade volume.
According to Trend, the commodity structure confirms that Kazakhstan’s economy maintains a high dependence on the raw materials sector: crude oil and petroleum products account for 44% of export revenues, while processed goods hold relatively small shares (ferroalloys at 3.2% and wheat at 3%).
Simultaneously, the import structure, dominated by passenger cars (3.1%), petroleum gases (2.7%), medicines (2.6%), and electrical equipment (2.5%), highlights a robust domestic demand that local production is currently unable to fully satisfy.
Trend suggests that the consequences of these trends hold potential risks for macroeconomic stability. First, the rapid growth in imports of finished goods creates conditions for "imported inflation," which may exert upward pressure on consumer prices throughout the second half of 2026. Second, if the trend of imports outpacing exports persists, Kazakhstan may face a shrinking trade surplus, which could ultimately increase pressure on the national currency.
Furthermore, the high concentration of trade partners, with China leading in exports and Russia in imports, renders the economy sensitive to any logistical or regulatory shifts within these nations.
In conclusion, for sustainable development, it is imperative for Kazakhstan to accelerate export diversification and incentivize the localization of manufacturing, particularly in machinery and complex technology, to reduce reliance on high-value-added imports.
