Azerbaijan, Baku / Тrend corr A. Gasymova, D. Khatynoghlu / The upcoming summit of Caspian Sea's littoral countries to be held in Teheran on 16 October will change nothing in the issue on Caspian Sea's status, according to the politicians of the littoral countries.
After the collapse of the USSR Azerbaijan, Russia, and Kazakhstan agreed on the legal status of the Caspian Sea. Disputable issues remained between Azerbaijan, Iran, and Turkmenistan. In case of delimitation of the Caspian Sea's shore line Iran's share will make up 14%, while 19% will go to Russia, 19% to Azerbaijan, 29% to Kazakhstan, and 19% to Turkmenistan.
The summit in Teheran will be the second. The first one was held in Ashgabat in 2002.
"The littoral countries will come to a consensus on the status of the Caspian Sea only providing US military operation is held in Iran and the country's regime changes," the deputy chief editor of the Komersant newspaper, politician Azer Mursaliyev, said to Trend from Moscow on 23 August
He believes that otherwise any agreements will be just formal - five countries will agree on free bird migration over the Caspian Sea and non-prevention of winds over the sea instead of to solve the problem with the status of the Caspian Sea.
Unresolved issue on the status of the Caspian Sea can create big problems. On 20 July 2001, Iranian Foreign Minister handed a protest note to Azerbaijan's temporary ambassador to Teheran which regarded the reports on Baku's plans to hold exploration work in Araz-Alov-Sharg prospect jointly with foreign companies. BP operates the prospect's development. Iranian Oil Ministry spread a report on 21 July stressing inadmissibility of any unilateral actions by Azerbaijan in the disputable areas of the Caspian Sea: "the authorities shall stop any company's illegal oil exploration in this sector and the Oil Ministry shall not sign any contracts with the companies," the report said. However, Baku ignored Iran's undisguised demarches. On 23 July Iranian Naval Forces' guard ship categorically demanded freighted by BP Azerbaijan's Geophysician-3 vessel to sail 5miles north of Alov off-shore field.
The incident became the most serious in the history of the post-Soviet Caspian Sea and could complicate both Azerbaijani-Iranian relationships and the negotiations of the Caspian littoral countries regarding determination of the sea's status. Baku and Teheran exchanged very flat statements. They were even ready to protect their rights by force. Iranian ambassador left Azerbaijan, the administration of BP officially stated on suspension of work in the disputable areas of the Caspian Sea.
The summit to be held in Teheran on 16 August will not differ anyhow, according to a Russian politician, who is the President of Panorama information research centre, Vladimir Pribylovski. "The disagreements among the interested sides are too big. Moreover, the leaders have problems in their internal political positions. Nobody wants to make a compromise. I think the summit will again result in nothing, so nothing will change," Pribylovski said from Moscow.
According to him, the Caspian Sea is not the priority issue for the governing group in Russia and trans-national 'Kremlin' gas and oil corporation. But on the other hand, 'Kremlin' and Russia do not have special incentives to change their positions on the matter.
Iranian politician Isa Saharkhiz shared the opinion. He considers it unreal that the Caspian littoral countries will back out of their principles in the Caspian Sea issue. "Each country seeks to resolve the issue in its own favour. So, I do not expect the agreement to be achieved in October," the politician said from Teheran on 23 August.
Before the USSR collapsed the Caspian Sea's legal status was based on Soviet-Iranian agreements of 1921 and 1940. Now, lack of the parameters of delimitation of oil and gas prospective fields among the littoral countries resulted in the necessity of a new status of the sea based on a consensus among the all five littoral countries ( Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Iran).
According to Mursaliyev, former Soviet republics made a wrong thing inviting an outsider - Iran- while sharing their common property. Delimitation of the Caspian Sea was Soviet Republics' matter. " Iran demands a part which is bigger than the one it owned before the USSR collapsed. Thus, the negotiations will either end in capitulation of some of the countries or in change of the negotiating format," he added.
The five Caspian countries have an agreement stressing necessity of signing of a Convention on the Caspian Sea's status. Soviet-Iranian agreements dating to 26 February 1921 and 25 March 1940 shall stay in force before the Convention takes effect. In accordance with the documents free shipping and fishing was established. Use of natural resources and nature protection was not coordinated by the agreements.
Some 70% of the Convention's text has been developed. Delimitation was achieved only among the Russian Federation, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan for use of natural resources. A range of the articles - delimitation of water area, bed and entrails of the sea, pipeline laying, transit of vessels, location of military forces - have not been coordinated yet.
During the first summit in Ashgabat in April 2002 the Presidents agreed to hold such meetings annually. However, a regularly summit has not been held yet so far. During this period Iran, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan changed their presidents.