BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 13. Crude supply from OPEC+ is expected to reach 49.9 mb/d in 2024, and 50.3 mb/d - in 2025, says the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
In its latest outlook, the agency reports that OPEC+ crude oil output from all 22 member countries rose by 250 kb/d in July, reaching 41.7 mb/d. This increase was driven by a rebound in Saudi Arabian production and significantly higher output from Iraq.
Despite agreements by Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia to implement additional reductions to address earlier overproduction, these countries continued to exceed their quotas last month. The supply from the 18 OPEC+ countries bound by production targets was 930 kb/d above the implied quota of 33.76 mb/d for July, which includes the extra cutbacks pledged by Iraq and Kazakhstan.
Output from OPEC's 12 member countries rose by 250 kb/d to 27.34 mb/d, while production from the 10 non-OPEC members remained stable at 14.36 mb/d. Effective spare capacity, excluding the impacts of sanctions on Iran and Russia, was 5.5 mb/d, with Saudi Arabia holding 56 percent of this buffer.
OPEC+ currently plans to gradually unwind some voluntary production curbs starting in October 2024, but has indicated that it may pause or reverse this decision based on market conditions. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is scheduled to meet on October 2 to review the situation.
The IEA’s forecasts for non-OPEC+ supply and global demand suggest a call on OPEC+ for an average of 41.7 mb/d in crude oil during the fourth quarter of 2024, aligning closely with its July output. The existing OPEC+ strategy involves a gradual reduction of 2.2 mb/d in voluntary cuts by eight members, led by Saudi Arabia, from October 2024 through September 2025.