BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 19. U.S. coal production is expected to decrease slightly, while electricity generators ramp up consumption to meet rising electricity demands, according to the latest projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Trend reports.
U.S. coal stocks are anticipated to drop from 139 million short tons (MMst) in November to 131 MMst by December. This decline is largely due to an increase in coal consumption by power plants, which are working to meet the growing energy needs amid a colder winter season.
For both 2024 and 2025, the EIA forecasts that around 370 million short tons (MMst) of coal will be consumed in the U.S. electric power sector, a figure that remains flat despite fluctuating energy demands. Higher natural gas prices are expected to encourage more coal use at the margin, but increased renewable energy generation and the gradual retirement of coal plants will offset these gains. As a result, coal inventories are projected to be a crucial source of supply for U.S. electricity generation, with coal production set to fall from 505 MMst in 2024 to 469 MMst in 2025.
With production declining and consumption holding steady, the EIA predicts that coal stocks will continue to fall, reaching just 101 MMst by the end of 2025.
Additionally, U.S. coal exports are expected to see a slight rise. The EIA has revised its forecast for coal exports upward, now projecting total exports of 108 MMst in 2024, followed by a slight decrease to 104 MMst in 2025. This adjustment comes after stronger-than-expected export figures in September, fueled by increased demand for metallurgical coal. A recovery from operational disruptions at the Curtis Bay coal terminal in Maryland also contributed to the higher-than-anticipated exports.
While the EIA foresees a slight decline in steam and metallurgical coal exports in 2025, robust demand from China, spurred by recent fiscal stimulus measures, and continued growth in India's economy are expected to cushion the impact. However, the forecast remains subject to uncertainty due to trade policies and geopolitical developments, which could significantly influence U.S. coal export dynamics.
As coal production slows and inventories tighten, the U.S. coal market faces a balancing act between stable domestic demand and evolving export opportunities.