BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 14. Russia's crude and product exports remained steady in January, averaging 5.8 mb/d, unchanged from December, according to the latest data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
Total crude exports saw a slight increase of 100,000 b/d month-on-month, reaching 4.6 mb/d, while product exports fell by 100,000 b/d to 2.8 mb/d. This left overall oil exports flat at 7.4 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.6 mb/d compared to the same period last year.
Despite the ongoing sanctions, Russia continued to load oil onto tankers, with the total volume of oil on water rising by approximately 7 million barrels from mid-January to 32.8 million barrels by February 7. This level, last seen in January 2024, appears to be a seasonal trend observed in January and February.
Commercial export revenues for Russia are estimated to have risen by $0.9 billion month-on-month to $15.8 billion in January, driven by stronger oil prices, which offset the flat export levels. Crude oil revenues increased by $0.6 billion to $9.8 billion, while product revenues gained $0.4 billion to $5.9 billion. However, overall revenues were down by $0.6 billion year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in crude oil revenues.
All Russian crude remained above the $60 per barrel price cap imposed by sanctions. The discount on Baltic Urals crude to North Sea Dated widened by an average of $1 per barrel in January to -$12.69/bbl, fluctuating between -$12/bbl in early January to -$15.10/bbl in early February due to sanctions pressure. The discount on ESPO crude to Dubai M1 also surged from -$2.53/bbl in December to -$8.55/bbl in January, with the spread deteriorating from -$2.30/bbl in early January to -$15/bbl by the end of the month.
Approximately two-thirds of the newly sanctioned tankers are primarily transporting ESPO crude. Russian premium products continued to price below the $100 per barrel price cap, while discounted products traded above the $45 per barrel price cap. International cracks largely followed trends for Baltic Urals, except for gasoline, whose cracks surged higher after lagging in recent months.
