BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 12. The Chamber of Accounts has provided its assessment of the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan’s (SOFAZ) budget for next year, Trend reports via the chamber.
According to information, the Fund’s budget revenues are projected at their lowest level over the past five years (2022-2026) due to a decline in crude oil production and export prices, as well as a narrowing of other income sources.
The draft decree estimates the Fund’s budget revenues at 13 billion manat ($7.65 billion), which is 5 billion manat ($2.94 billion), or 27.8%, lower than the actual performance in 2024; 1.42 billion manat ($84 million), or 9.8%, below the approved 2025 budget; and 1 billion manat ($59 million), or 7.4%, less than the expected execution figure for 2025.
The projections assume an average annual export price of crude oil of $65 per barrel, a European Hub gas price of $440 per 1,000 cubic meters (according to bp data), and an average exchange rate of the Azerbaijani manat against the US dollar in line with the state budget. Compared with revenue forecasts for 2022–2025, the 2026 budget is expected to generate the lowest revenues in that period.
The Chamber of Accounts noted that in the first nine months of the current year, the Fund achieved 90.5% of budget revenues and 74.6% of expenditures, with the average crude oil sale price reaching $71.4, slightly above the projected $70. Strong management of Fund assets led to actual revenues exceeding budget projections of $2 billion by 151.2%, despite the absence of expected dividends from oil and gas projects totaling 396.2 million manat ($233 million). This contributed to the Fund’s assets increasing by 16.9% compared to the start of the year ($60 million), reaching $70.1 billion, including off-budget revenues of $10.1 billion.
Despite the strong nine-month performance in both income and expenditures, and crude oil revenues exceeding budgeted forecasts, the Fund’s total projected revenues for the end of 2025 are expected to fall short by 381.3 million manat ($224.2 million). This shortfall is due to the absence of 209.4 million manat ($123.1 million) under the Settlement Protocol, 396.2 million manat ($233 million) in dividends from oil and gas projects, and lower-than-expected transit revenues.
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