BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 12. The decrease in the level of oil and gas revenue coverage for transfers from the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) to the state budget over the years, as well as the increasing tendency of covering part of the transfer through the liquidation of assets under the fund's management, are factors necessitating careful monitoring in the coming years, Trend reports.
This issue is reflected in the review of the Accounts Chamber on the 2026 budget of SOFAZ.
The review emphasized that the net revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons allocated to Azerbaijan make up the largest share in the fund’s revenue structure.
"According to the data provided by the fund, it's predicted that crude oil production in the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) field will be 120.1 million barrels in 2026, which is three million barrels less compared to 2025’s figure (123 million barrels), due to a decrease in production. The peak production level of the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli field was 303 million barrels in 2010, and since then, a consistent decrease in production has been observed. Based on the provided data, the production volume in 2026 is expected to be approximately 2.5 times lower than the peak period (2010), with a reduction of 183 million barrels," the review delineated.
The review noted that the sharp decline in oil prices and the prolonged period of low prices, combined with a decrease in production, creates the risk of reducing the revenues of SOFAZ and the rapid depletion of its assets.
"Thus, the revenues from the sale of profit oil and gas in 2026 are predicted to amount to $5 million, with the government’s share from the ACG field’s revenues reaching $4.23 million, or 84.2% of total revenues," the review added.
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