BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 27. In February 2026, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev will pay a visit to Pakistan, and the Uzbek-Pakistani Business Forum will take place in Islamabad on February 5–6. These events signal a fresh chapter in the partnership between the two countries.
The intensification of interaction is driven by two key factors. On the one hand, there is significant yet still underutilized potential for trade and economic growth. On the other hand, progress is being made on a major transport project capable of giving bilateral relations additional momentum and creating a sustainable foundation for expanded cooperation.
For Uzbekistan, a landlocked country, access to external markets directly depends on the efficiency of transport corridors. High tariffs, lengthy delivery times, and dependence on transit routes remain key constraints on exports and investment activity. Under these conditions, the development of shorter and more cost-effective routes is of strategic importance.
In this scenario, the goals of Uzbekistan and Pakistan are largely on the same page. Pakistan has access to the Arabian Sea and a developed port infrastructure, making it one of the most promising routes for Uzbek goods to reach global markets. For Pakistan, expanding ties with Uzbekistan means increased transit flows, greater port utilization, and a strengthened role as a regional logistics hub between Central and South Asia.
The key project within this framework is the Trans-Afghan railway. It is intended to connect Uzbekistan with Pakistani ports through Afghanistan and establish a direct overland corridor between Central and South Asia.
On July 17, 2025, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan signed a framework agreement to develop a feasibility study for the project. The railway, approximately 647 kilometers long, is planned to run along the Termez–Naibabad–Maidanshahr–Logar–Kharlachi route and connect with Pakistan’s railway network leading to the ports of Karachi and other maritime terminals. The preliminary cost of the project is estimated at $4.6 billion.
“The Trans-Afghan railway linking Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan is of strategic importance for the entire Eurasian region. This corridor will improve trade, support Afghanistan’s economic recovery, and open new routes to global markets through southern ports,” Uzbekistan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Bakhtiyor Saidov said following the signing of the agreement.
The implementation of the Trans-Afghan railway is set to cut cargo delivery times from the current 35-40 days down to just 3-5 days, while also slashing transport costs significantly. Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Transport forecasts that by 2035-2040, freight volumes along the route could reach 15-20 million tons per year. This would create favorable conditions for trade growth, the development of logistics infrastructure, and increased investment in related sectors.
At the same time, the project is associated with a number of risks. The key factor remains the security situation in Afghanistan, through which the main section of the route will pass. Ensuring stability, infrastructure protection, and uninterrupted transit will directly affect construction timelines and the future operation of the railway.
Additional challenges relate to project financing and the allocation of risks among participants. The overall cost of construction requires the attraction of external capital, including from international financial institutions, as well as political and commercial risk insurance mechanisms. Experts also point to the need to harmonize technical standards, tariff policies, and customs procedures among the three countries, without which the benefits of reduced delivery times could be partially offset.
Against the backdrop of the transport agenda, trade and economic cooperation continue to develop. In recent years, bilateral trade between Uzbekistan and Pakistan has shown steady growth. In 2024, trade turnover reached approximately $407 million, increasing to $445 million in 2025. Uzbekistan has become Pakistan’s largest trading partner in Central Asia. At the same time, both sides are on the same page, recognizing that the current numbers don't tell the whole story of their economies' potential.
One of the key topics of the upcoming visit and business forum will be increasing bilateral trade to $2 billion. To achieve this goal, the parties plan to expand the list of goods eligible for preferential customs treatment, as well as simplify and harmonize customs and inspection procedures. These measures are expected to reduce delivery times and business costs, particularly in agriculture, textiles, and light industry.
Industrial cooperation also occupies an important place on the bilateral agenda. Projects are being discussed in pharmaceuticals, agriculture, mining, electrical engineering, textiles, and leather production. For Uzbekistan, this represents a shift from simple trade toward joint production and localization. For Pakistan, it offers an opportunity to expand its presence in Central Asia and use Uzbekistan as a production and export platform.
Special attention is being paid to the pharmaceutical sector. Uzbekistan’s annual imports of pharmaceutical products exceed $3 billion, making localization a key priority. Pakistani companies have expressed interest in establishing production facilities in Uzbekistan, including within specialized pharmaceutical clusters.
The mining sector also remains a promising area of cooperation. A Pakistani delegation visited the Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Complex to assess opportunities for technological partnership in copper mining. In addition, projects in agricultural machinery and electrical equipment manufacturing are under discussion, targeting both domestic markets and exports.
Expectations surrounding the upcoming visit of Uzbekistan’s president and the business forum in Islamabad are primarily linked to advancing the transport agenda and moving toward concrete decisions. For markets, this will serve as an indication that cooperation between Uzbekistan and Pakistan is entering a more mature and practical phase.
Overall, bilateral relations are increasingly structured around the nexus of transport, trade, and industrial cooperation. The successful implementation of major infrastructure projects, particularly the Trans-Afghan railway, could give this partnership a long-term character and significantly strengthen the positions of both Uzbekistan and Pakistan in the regional economy.
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