BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 25. Recent U.S. engagement in Venezuela’s oil sector could support future production growth and benefit American companies if it leads to policy changes encouraging foreign investment, Fitch Ratings said, Trend reports.
The agency noted that meaningful gains would likely require substantial investment and time, and that incentives remain limited in a global market currently oversupplied with crude.
On January 3, US President Donald Trump announced that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife had been detained and taken out of the country. He noted that the US had successfully carried out a large-scale operation against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro.
"This operation was carried out in conjunction with US law enforcement agencies," Trump noted.
Later on, Trump said during a press conference that the U.S. oil companies will spend billions of dollars to fix the oil infrastructure in Venezuela.
"As everyone knows, the oil business in Venezuela has been a bust, a total bust for a long period of time. They were pumping almost nothing by comparison to what they could have been pumping and what could have taken place. We're going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country," he noted.
Oil prices saw a choppy session on January 5 as markets digested the impact of the developments in Venezuela.
ICE Brent crude briefly dipped below $60 per barrel during trading but settled 1.66% higher at $61.76/bbl. European natural gas prices came under further pressure, with TTF futures sliding more than 5.5% on the day.
While a rapid rise in Venezuelan crude exports could put pressure on Canadian oil prices, Fitch said any impact on credit ratings would likely be limited due to the financial resilience of Canadian producers. U.S. refiners, particularly those with complex facilities able to process heavy crude, could benefit from access to Venezuela’s reserves and opportunities to invest in infrastructure rehabilitation.
Fitch warned that Venezuela’s oil sector would need significant rebuilding before production could approach previous peaks of more than three million barrels per day, with any substantial increase taking years to materialize. A broadly oversupplied market and expected price declines in 2026 further limit incentives for major investment.
In North America, exploration and production companies are expected to continue focusing on consolidation and cost control, with potential for additional capital expenditure cuts if prices weaken further.
For Canadian producers, a rebound in Venezuelan heavy crude could pose a modest competitive challenge, but infrastructure expansions, including the Trans Mountain pipeline extension, have diversified export markets. Fitch-rated Canadian companies — Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor Energy, and Cenovus Energy — maintain strong credit profiles due to reserve life and conservative financial policies, despite higher operating costs for oil sands relative to shale.