BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 19. The International Monetary Fund expects the global economic growth to remain resilient at 3.3 percent in 2026 and at 3.2 percent in 2027: rates similar to the estimated 3.3 percent outturn in 2025, Trend reports via the IMF’s World Economic Outlook January 2026 edition.
“The forecast marks a small upward revision for 2026 and no change for 2027 compared with that in the October 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This steady performance on the surface results from the balancing of divergent forces. Headwinds from shifting trade policies are offset by tailwinds from surging investment related to technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), more so in North America and Asia than in other regions, as well as fiscal and monetary support, broadly accommodative financial conditions, and adaptability of the private sector,” reads the report.
IMF notes that growth in advanced economies is projected to be 1.8 percent in 2026 and 1.7 percent in 2027. In the United States, the economy is projected to expand by 2.4 percent in 2026, supported by fiscal policy and a lower policy rate, while the impact of higher trade barriers also gradually wanes.
“This 0.3 percentage point upward revision from the October forecast reflects a stronger-than expected GDP outturn in the third quarter of 2025, a rebound in activity in the first quarter of 2026 compared with that in the fourth quarter of 2025 following the end of the federal government shutdown, and the associated carryover. Growth is projected to remain solid at 2.0 percent in 2027, with a near-term fiscal boost from tax incentives for corporate investment under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025. Technology-driven momentum is expected to moderate but still provide some offset to lower immigration and moderating consumption,” the report says.
In emerging market and developing economies, growth is expected to continue to hover just above 4.0 percent in 2026 and 2027.
In the Middle East and Central Asia, growth is projected to accelerate from 3.7 percent in 2025 to 3.9 percent in 2026 and to 4.0 percent in 2027, supported by higher oil output, resilient local demand, and ongoing reforms.