ASTANA, Kazakhstan, March 6. The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to keep the base rate at 18% per annum with a corridor of ±1 percentage point, Trend reports via the bank.
The decision was based on the results of the latest forecast round, updated assessments of key macroeconomic indicators, and the balance of inflation risks.
Annual inflation in Kazakhstan slowed to 11.7% in February 2026, down from 12.2% in January, in line with forecasts. All components of inflation showed a slowdown. Food prices increased by 12.7% (12.9% in January), non-food goods by 11.6% (11.7%), and paid services by 10.8% (12%).
The National Bank noted that disinflation has been supported by moderately tight monetary conditions, the strengthening of the tenge, slower growth in unsecured consumer lending, and the gradual withdrawal of excess liquidity. Additional factors include the government’s anti-inflation measures, including a moratorium on price increases for utilities and fuel.
At the same time, monthly inflation accelerated to 1.1% in February, while core inflation stood at 0.8%.
Inflation expectations among the population for the next 12 months declined to 13.7% in February, though they remain elevated and volatile. Professional market participants lowered their inflation forecast for 2026 to 10%, compared to 10.8% in January.
The National Bank revised its 2026 inflation forecast downward to 9.5–11.5% from the previous 9.5–12.5%. Inflation is expected to slow to 5.5–7.5% in 2027 and approach the 5% target by 2028.
Kazakhstan’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at 3.5–4.5%, with economic activity expected to follow a more moderate trajectory following the high base of 2025.
According to the bank,a potential rate cut could be considered in the second half of 2026.