BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 15. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has adjusted its global crude run forecasts, predicting an average of 83.4 mb/d for this year, an increase of 950,000 b/d year-on-year, Trend reports.
For 2025, the forecast is set at 84 mb/d, up by 630,000 b/d year-on-year. These figures are 130,000 b/d and 190,000 b/d lower, respectively, than last month’s report.
The downward revisions are attributed to weaker margins impacting prompt crude runs and a more cautious outlook on US throughput rates for next year. In China, ongoing weak crude runs have led to annual growth projections being nearly flat, a significant drop from the estimated increase of 330,000 b/d year-on-year at the beginning of the year.
For the second quarter of 2024, global crude runs have been revised down by 480,000 b/d to 82.6 mb/d. This adjustment follows lower-than-expected throughputs in the OECD Americas, Europe, China, the Middle East, and Africa, partially offset by increases in Latin America and Other Asia estimates.
A post-maintenance rebound in refinery activity boosted June crude throughputs by 1 mb/d month-on-month to 83.5 mb/d. This increase is expected to peak seasonally at around 85.5 mb/d in July and August, lifting third-quarter 2024 runs to 84.8 mb/d, a rise of 2.2 mb/d quarter-on-quarter and 1.1 mb/d year-on-year.