Azerbaijan, Baku, Jan. 25 / Trend A.Badalova /
World primary energy consumption grew by 45 percent over the past 20 years, and is likely to grow by 39 percent over the next 20 years. Global energy consumption growth averages 1.7 percent p.a. from 2010 to 2030, with growth decelerating gently beyond 2020, BP Energy outlook 2030 reads.
Non-OECD energy consumption is 68 percent higher by 2030, averaging 2.6 percent p.a. growth from 2010, and accounts for 93 percent of global energy growth.
OECD energy consumption in 2030 is just 6 percent higher than today, with growth averaging 0.3 percent p.a. to 2030. From 2020, OECD energy consumption per capita is on a declining trend (-0.2 percent p.a.).
Oil is expected to be the slowest-growing fuel over the next 20 years. Global liquids demand (oil, biofuels, and other liquids) nonetheless is likely to rise by 16.5 Mb/d, exceeding 102 Mb/d by 2030. Growth comes exclusively from rapidly-growing non-OECD economies. Non- OECD Asia accounts for more than three-quarters of the net global increase, rising by nearly 13 Mb/d. The Middle East and South and Central America will also grow significantly. OECD demand has likely peaked (in 2005), and consumption is expected to decline by just over 4 million barrels per day (Mb/d).
Globally, liquids production is expected to increase to meet the growth in consumption, though the sources of growth will change the global balance. Global liquids supply is set to rise by about 16.5 Mb/d by 2030.
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OPEC accounts for over 75 percent of global supply growth, with OPEC NGLs expected to grow by more than 4 Mb/d - driven in part by rapid growth of natural gas production.
Iraqi crude output is projected to grow from about 2.5 Mb/d currently to more than 5.5 Mb/d; Saudi output is likely to expand by nearly 3 Mb/d.
The importance of OPEC is expected to grow. On BP projections, OPEC's share of global production would increase from 40 percent in 2010 to 46 percent in 2030.
Gas
In 2009 the world's proven gas reserves amounted to 187.5 trillion cubic meters, which at current production levels will be sufficient for the period to 63 years.
As expected, natural gas by 2030 will be a fuel observing the most rapidly growing demand.
Asia will be the main source of production growth and demand for gas. China's share will amount to 56 percent growth in gas demand in the region.
The share of the Middle East, which is the second largest source of production growth and demand for gas in 2030, will comprise 17 percent of global demand for fuel compared to 12 percent in 2010. Its share in the growth of global gas production will increase from 15 percent in 2010 to 19 percent in 2030.
LNG imports will grow. Annual growth in LNG supply will amount to 4.4 percent by 2030. Its share in world gas supplies will increase from 9 percent in 2010 to 15 percent in 2030.
In Europe, the share of LNG in total imports will increase from 30 percent in 2010 to 42 percent in 2030.