BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan. 9
By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
Iran’s blocking of Hormuz is unlikely in the case of escalation of the tension in the Middle East, Cyril Widdershoven, a Middle East geopolitical specialist and energy analyst, a partner at Dutch risk consultancy VEROCY and Global Head Strategy Risk at Berry Commodities told Trend.
“Don’t believe in a blockade of Hormuz as this would also cripple the already in dire state Iranian economy even further. However, proxy actions around Hormuz, Bab El Mandab or even elsewhere are to be taken into account,” he said.
As for the effect of the recent developments in the Middle East with the attack of Iran on US military bases in Iraq on oil prices, Widdershoven said short-term instability is bad for oil prices.
“Oil prices are up, even that OPEC reiterrated to have around 3 million bpd spare capacity. The latter is very questionable, as this includes Iraqi and Libyan production. Both are under severe stress at present. Long-term the fluctuations can be huge, if an agreement is reached prices will go down, if however further action is shown by both sides militarily prices are up. Supply is already under pressure, while oil storage volumes are decreasing,” the expert said.
He went on to add that the first thought on the Iranian missile attacks on two Iraqi military basis is the following:
Tehran needed to show its willingness to retaliate to the killing of IRGC general and 2nd most important Iranian leader Soleimani to the Iranian people. If it would have waited too long or longer some food would be given to the existing opposition that the regime is weakened.
The fact that Iran has openly attacked these two basis is also significant, as they are not a fully US military base but a combination with Iraqi forces. The latter is somehow confusing as it shows Tehran is willing to take a risk.
The use of these ballistic missiles is also significant for two reasons: a. they are generally not so precise, so there is a lot of chance that no one is being hit at all. The attack on an airbase is Always more risky, as they have a lot of empty spaces, so chance of hitting nothing is large. The use of these missiles is also questionable as only a direct hit on a bunker will have caused major damage or people being killed
He believes that the main option for resolving the current situation is time.
“If there is some lull in action, time is being given to think things over. Arab countries are also not looking for war in the region. However, additional time for Iran also could be dangerous, looking at its position inside of JCPOA and its increased nuclear activities. Tehran needs to understand that any action against US or Arab economies at present will strengthen NATO support and others for Washington,” he concluded.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) used Fateh-313 ballistic missiles in attack on Iraq’s Ayn al-Asad Air Base. These missiles were fired from Iran’s Kermanshah province (430 kilometers) because of its proximity to the military base. The missiles have a range of 500 kilometers. Previous reports said that at least 80 US servicemen were killed in an attack on Iraq’s Ayn al-Asad Air Base by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). About 200 people were injured.
Ayn al-Asad Air Base was a strategic spot for the US and delivered support to drones from that base, the IRGC representative said. Fifteen missiles were fired at 20 sensitive locations, Numerous drones and helicopters were destroyed.
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