BAKU, Azerbaijan, Feb.28. Keeping gas demand low, and even potentially reducing it further, will be a key goal in 2023 in preparation for winter 2023/2024, Trend reports with reference to the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).
The OIES report reveals that how much more can be reduced in the industrial and heating sectors is uncertain, at least without any major impact on economic activity and consumers’ wellbeing.
"We could even see a rebound in gas and electricity demand (especially from large industrials) as a result of lower gas/electricity prices, be it as a result of the market rebalancing or as a result of additional support measures, as announced in various countries, including toward large energy intensive industries. On the electricity supply side, the main drivers to keep an eye on in 2023 include the usual suspects: the availability of (French) nuclear, the stabilization of hydro stocks, and the scale and speed of additional wind and solar capacity deployment across Europe.
First and foremost, the scale and pace of the French nuclear fleet. EDF is racing against the clock to put as many reactors as possible back in service as soon as possible. At the beginning of winter, 30 reactors out of 56 were offline. At the time of writing (20 January), this was reduced to 1426 and it is expected that EDF's nuclear power plants should slightly exceed 45 gigawatts (GW) by the end of January. French nuclear generation still started 2023 at a record low, but thanks to strong renewables availability and low national electricity demand, France also started the year by exporting more electricity to neighbouring countries than it imports," reads the report.
For the rest of 2023, EDF confirmed late December its expectations for 300-330 TWh of nuclear generation, which would still be relatively low for the French nuclear fleet but around 18 - 19 per cent higher than 2022 levels. 27 However, uncertainties remain (the company revised its predictions for nuclear generation downwards four times in 2022).
In addition, EDF still needs to carry out stress corrosion protection maintenance on six more reactors during 2023 and the nuclear fleet should fall again to 40-45 GW when the maintenance programme re- starts next month. RTE, France's Transmission System Operator, mentioned possible risk of tightness on the national electricity grid for the second half of February,28 at a time when cold temperatures could hit Europe. A cold wave (and low wind) then would potentially mean substantially higher thermal generation in France and neighbouring countries to meet electricity needs.