BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 2. Kazakhstan's Ministry of National Economy has approved a methodology for calculating potential gross domestic product (GDP), Trend reports via the ministry.
The move is part of efforts to ensure high-quality economic growth and further improve macroeconomic analysis.
Potential GDP reflects the maximum level of output an economy can achieve when production factors are fully utilized and inflationary pressures are absent.
According to the ministry, calculating this indicator will make it possible to determine the natural limits of Kazakhstan's economic growth and assess whether actual economic performance is above or below its potential level.
The methodology incorporates international approaches to estimating potential GDP and is based on the widely used Cobb-Douglas production function. It evaluates the contribution of key growth factors, including employment expansion, growth in investment and fixed capital, as well as technological progress, measured through total factor productivity.
The calculations will be based on official data provided by the Bureau of National Statistics.
Potential GDP estimates are planned to be produced on a quarterly basis.
The results will be used for analytical purposes, including assessing the quality of economic growth and determining the phase of the economic cycle.
According to data from the Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan’s GDP growth in January–April 2026 amounted to 3.6% compared to the same period of the previous year.
Industrial production also moved into positive territory over the four-month period, with the index of physical volume reaching 102.1%, whereas a decline to 99.9% had been recorded at the end of the first quarter.
