ASTANA, Kazakhstan, October 12. Kazakhstan’s real GDP growth is projected to reach 5.5 percent in 2025, Trend reports via the World Bank.
The bank made a 1.0 percentage point upward revision from the June 2025 projections.
Additionally, the Kazakh economy is expected to expand by 4.5 percent in 2026 and 3.9 percent in 2027, with respective revisions of 0.9 and 0.4 percentage points from earlier forecasts.
WB notes that the pace of economic expansion in Central Asia—the fastest-growing subregion of Europe and Central Asia for the third consecutive year—is projected to accelerate to 5.9 percent in 2025, up from 5.7 percent in 2024. This growth is driven by higher oil output in Kazakhstan, stronger remittances, and increased public and private investment spending.
According to earlier World Bank reports, Kazakhstan’s real GDP expanded by an estimated 6.5 percent year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025, up from 3.7 percent over the same period in 2024, driven by robust domestic demand. Investment surged by 16.1 percent in the first seven months of 2025, compared to a marginal 0.4 percent increase a year earlier, reflecting strong growth in housing and budget-funded infrastructure spending.
Domestic trade picked up to 6.3 percent year-on-year in August, up from 3.9 percent a year ago, largely supported by household borrowing despite a contraction in real incomes (-1.0 percent in the first six months). While growth in budget expenditure remained contained, quasi-fiscal activities outside the budget expanded notably.
The external sector remained a drag, with goods exports contracting 7.1 percent year-on-year in the first six months, while imports rose 3.5 percent, suggesting a negative contribution from net trade. High-frequency indicators suggest the economy is operating above potential, with the output gap estimated at 2–3 percentage points.
While current growth aligns with government targets for 2025, it comes at the cost of heightened inflationary pressures, which have eroded real incomes, likely affecting the poor and vulnerable the most.
Official data show that Kazakhstan’s GDP grew by 5 percent in 2024.