BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 5. A panel discussion at an event entitled "The Caspian Sea at a turning point: scientific and analytical discussion on sea level fall and regional action" has been held as part of the international conference dedicated to World Environment Day (WED), Trend reports.
During the panel discussion, Elena Ostrovskaya, a researcher at the Russian Hydrometeorological Research Center, said that the change in the level of the Caspian Sea is a natural process.
"Climate studies show that the decrease in the water level in the Caspian Sea may continue in the coming years. The change in the level of the Caspian Sea is a natural process, and this has happened many times throughout history. Both increases and decreases in the water level have been observed at different times. Measurements taken at the stations show that decreases and increases in the water level have been recorded over the past 200 years," she noted.
Rovshan Abbasov, a climate expert working in Azerbaijan, said that the Caspian Sea is generally a water basin without a flow, but its main water sources are rivers flowing into the basin.
According to him, most of the water comes mainly from the Volga and Ural rivers. The Volga River accounts for about 80% of the total water entering the Caspian Sea.
"The level of the Caspian Sea is falling because it depends on river flows. As the flow of rivers changes, the level of the sea also changes. I remember 1995. Over the past 100 years, the sea level has fluctuated significantly.
In 1995, the level of the Caspian Sea reached its highest point. This disrupted normal life along the approximately 800-kilometer coastal areas of Azerbaijan. Prolonged floods occurred, and the main infrastructure along the coast was flooded. Even some parts of the Baku Boulevard were damaged by floods.
However, after 1995, a decrease in sea level has been observed. This decrease is associated with various factors occurring in the Caspian basin. The main reason is the decrease in water coming from the rivers. So why is the river flow decreasing? The main reasons for this are the increase in temperature and the decrease in precipitation. In addition, the demand for water is also increasing. As is known, most of the water entering the Caspian comes from the territory of Russia, in particular from the Volga River.
The total area of water reservoirs in Russia reaches 30 thousand square kilometers. This means more evaporation and water losses. Measures must be taken in this regard.
At the same time, the effects of climate change are intensifying and the volume of irrigated land is increasing both in Russia and in other countries, including Azerbaijan. This creates additional pressure on water resources.
The main conclusion is that it is necessary to organize water use in the Caspian basin in a more efficient and economical way. This issue is of particular importance, "he said.
Simon Goodman from the University of Leeds noted that a drop in the level of the Caspian Sea could have potentially catastrophic consequences.
He said that even in the most optimistic scenario, if sea levels fall by 5–8 meters, this could lead to huge losses in important habitats and ecologically important areas.
"In the event of a 5-meter drop in sea level, 7 of the 15 existing ecologically and biologically important areas could lose more than 50 percent of their area, and 4 of them could disappear completely. If the sea level drops by 10 meters, five such areas would disappear completely, and four unique ecoregions in the northern Caspian would also face the threat of extinction."
He also noted that the consequences for sturgeons, the main species of the Caspian, would be serious.
"A 5-meter drop in sea level could lead to the loss of approximately 57–81 percent of the Caspian seal's existing breeding grounds. At the same time, the distribution range of sturgeons will be significantly narrowed and their access to river systems will be severely limited. This indicates potentially catastrophic consequences for the critical biodiversity of the Caspian Sea. As a result, human well-being and economic activity depend on ecosystem services. Therefore, it is extremely important to consider ways to prevent possible biodiversity losses," he noted.
Elnur Safarov, an expert on Caspian Sea research at IDEA Public Union, said in his speech that the coverage of meteorological stations is very limited.
According to him, this information is not enough to fully understand the changes taking place in the Caspian Sea.
"Relevant legislation exists, and different approaches are applied by both Russia and Azerbaijan. Sometimes there are disagreements between these approaches. In addition, there are satellite observations, and in order to obtain more accurate results, it is important to integrate data from various sources. There is a need for certain updates in data systems. It is necessary to create a new platform in a semi-institutional, semi-scientific format so that integrated and more accurate data can be obtained. For this purpose, we, as the IDEA Public Union, have created a council that brings together Caspian Sea researchers. However, support at the state level is necessary for this to be implemented on a larger scale.
It's important to create a single model that combines station data, reanalysis data and citizen observations. The more accurate the data, the more reliable the forecasts will be. The average depth in the northern part of the Caspian is only a few meters. Even a decrease of about 25 cm can lead to serious ecological consequences. If precipitation continues until the end of the year, stabilization in the level of the Caspian Sea may be observed," he noted.
Robb Butler, the World Health Organization's special representative for climate and health, noted in his speech that the state of the Caspian Sea directly affects the condition of all people and living creatures living around it.
"Currently, we do not have systematically collected and assessed data on the impact of sea level decline, both water volume and water quality changes, on human health. That is why we have started discussions with IDEA Public Union in Azerbaijan and the Ministry of Health of Azerbaijan, as well as with the Minister of Health Teymur Musayev, on a systematic assessment of the impacts on the environment and human health.
He said that the fact that countries do not have all the information at their disposal does not mean that they cannot have serious discussions at the scientific and political level.
"Because we have the best or perhaps the worst example in front of us - the Aral Sea. Once the fourth largest inland water basin in the world, the Aral Sea covered an area of about 68 thousand square kilometers. Today, most of it has turned into a desert covered with toxic dust. This is an example that clearly shows what the worst-case scenario could look like," he added.
Natalia Tretyakova, Head of the Department of International Cooperation and Climate Change of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Russia, noted in her speech that Russia takes the issue of changing the level of the Caspian Sea seriously.
She said that she has been engaged in the protection of the Caspian Sea for about 30 years.
"During this time, various mechanisms and cooperation platforms have been formed. We all agree that the Caspian is a unique water basin. One of its main features is the variability of its water level, which is also reflected in legal documents. We believe that this sea belongs to all of us and consultations on issues should be held in a fair and transparent format. The more comprehensive the exchange of information, the more accurate the assessments will be. Based on reliable information, adaptive measures can be taken, and activities carried out during extreme water level changes will be more effective.
At the meeting in Turkmenistan, we proposed the creation of a Working Group on Climate. We consider it important to have more complete climate measurements and data in the database.
In addition to bilateral agreements, there is also activity in various areas - hydrometeorological monitoring, protection of living marine resources, and scientific cooperation. Russia attaches particular importance to the issue of water level changes in the Caspian. A project is currently being implemented to investigate the causes of the water level change," he said.
Meanwhile, Rafiq Verdiyev, head of the Department of the State Supervision Service for Water Use and Protection under the Azerbaijan Water Resources Agency, said that according to the analysis, there was a temperature increase last year.
"Increasing temperature, evaporation and a decrease in river flows naturally lead to a decrease in the level of the Caspian Sea. The situation is not good. In Azerbaijan, for example, in our coastal zone, we see ecological problems, biodiversity problems, as well as industrial problems. For example, ships cannot approach the coast, coastal areas, and this creates certain difficulties. A drop in sea level by several meters can lead to an even more complicated situation. The situation is that we are under the influence. We are affected by climate change, we are affected by the decrease in sea level," he noted.
