Azerbaijan, Baku, Aug. 20 / Trend , A.Badalova/
Statements by Germany, France and later Japan that countries were leaving the recession have encouraged experts to announce the onset of the global economy's recovery. For example, the International Monetary Fund this week has said that the global economy has already begun to leave behind the recession, but Chief Economist at the fund, Oliver Blanchard, believes the recovery will not be so simple. Earlier, the IMF predicted the global economic recovery to begin no earlier than the first half of next year. The Fund predicts growth of world GDP at 0.2 per cent in 2009 compared to a-1.4 percent drop projected by them in July. In 2010, world GDP growth will be three percent compared to the 2.5 percent forecasted earlier.
One of the leading British consulting companies Capital Economics has made a slight change in projections after reports on GDP growth in Germany and France, which albeit little, do soften the apparent pessimism of analysts. According to new projections, the economy in the eurozone this year will drop not by five, but four, percent. In 2010, the British analysts expect economic growth in the region to be at 0.5 percent, also slightly higher than their previous forecasts.
American bank Goldman Sachs predicts a fall in world GDP in 2009 at 1.2 percent compared to 1.3 percent projected by the bank earlier. In 2010, world economic growth will be 3.5 percent.
Regarding the United States, the bank believes that the country's economic growth may reach three percent in 2009.
Deutsche Bank forecasts world economic growth in 2010 to stand at 2.5 percent compared to a 2-percent growth forecasted by the bank earlier.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, however, has not changed its forecasts for the world economic fall in 2009, leaving it at 1.4 percent. In 2010, the cartel predicts a 2.4-percent growth compared to the 2.3 percent growth projected by OPEC last month.
OPEC forecasts GDP in the U.S. will drop 2.8 percent in 2009, while growth will reach 1.2 percent in 2010.
The economic growth in 2009-2010:
|
Company |
2009 (%) |
2010 (%) |
|
IMF |
0.2 (W) |
3 (U) |
|
Capital Economics |
- 4 (E) |
0.5 (E) |
|
Goldman Sachs |
- 1.2 (W) 3 (U) |
3.5 (W) - |
|
Deutsche Bank |
- |
2.5 (W) |
|
OPEC |
- 1.4 (W) - 2.8 (U) |
2.4 (W) - 1.2 (U) |
W - World GDP
U - U.S.
E - Eurozone
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