BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 28. Moody's Ratings has changed Armenia's outlook to positive from stable, affirming Ba3 Ratings.
“The positive outlook reflects a material reduction in political risks underpinned by a lower probability of renewed large-scale hostilities with Azerbaijan, a rebalancing of external relations toward a more diversified set of partners, and contained domestic political risks,” said the rating agency.
Moody’s analysts note that these credit strengths are balanced against rising interest expenditures and lingering geopolitical risks, which continue to weigh on the sovereign's credit profile.
“While geopolitical risks have eased, uncertainties surrounding Armenia's evolving external orientation and its relationship with Russia continue to pose risks to Armenia's economic security given the two countries' strong economic ties,” noted the rating agency.
On August 8, 2025, following a trilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan signed a joint declaration on establishing peace between Baku and Yerevan and restoring transport connectivity between mainland Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The initiative was named the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity."
As part of the meeting, Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and Armenia's Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan initialed the draft "Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and Interstate Relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia" and signed a joint appeal by the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia to the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office calling for the termination of the OSCE Minsk Process, the mandate of the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office on the conflict dealt with by the Minsk Conference, and the High-Level Planning Group.
In early July, Jeyhun Bayramov told reporters that following the elimination of territorial claims contained in the Armenian Constitution, a peace treaty could be signed as early as the next day.
The minister emphasized that Azerbaijan has fully fulfilled all of its obligations.
“We also have our own expectations. The Armenian side has stated that the new Constitutional Act will not contain any reference to the previous Act of Independence. In that case, there will be no obstacles left to achieving peace. The sooner this happens, the better,” the minister noted.
