BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 30. Russia's liquified natural gas (LNG) output is expected to stand at 36.3 million tons by 2026, significantly lower than official projections, says Rystad Energy, an independent energy research and business intelligence company from Norway, Trend reports.
The Russian Ministry of Energy had envisioned a lofty trajectory for LNG production, with estimates reaching up to 140 million tonnes annually by 2035 in an optimistic scenario, or a more tempered 80 million tons in a conservative outlook.
Recent disclosures from the ministry unveiled plans to elevate LNG exports by 33 percent between 2022 and 2026, aiming for 44 million tonnes annually. However, according to Rystad Energy research, the pragmatic reality may fall short, with the more conservative estimate projecting a mere 18 percent increase, targeting 39 million tons per annum.
At the same time, as noted in the report, despite geopolitical tensions leading to a reduction in Russian piped gas exports to Europe, the continent remains heavily reliant on Russian LNG shipments. Notably, LNG exports to Europe surged approximately 5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024. Consequently, the imperative to replace these volumes in the short term presents a formidable challenge for European nations.
Thus, Rystad Energy expected Russia to inaugurate approximately 68 million tons of liquefaction capacity by the year 2035, yet the actual LNG production is estimated to hover around 40 million tons per annum. Novatek is poised to dominate this volume, with nearly 80 percent of the total capacity share with its projects including Yamal LNG, Arctic LNG-2, and Murmansk LNG.