BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 12. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub spot price averaged $4.13 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in January, up more than $1.00 from the December average of $3.01/MMBtu, according to the latest outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Trend reports.
The increase was driven by above-average withdrawals from underground natural gas storage during the month.
The Henry Hub spot price reached a high of $9.86/MMBtu on January 17, ahead of a cold snap expected to affect much of the United States during the mid-month holiday weekend. The EIA reports that the 37% uptick in the monthly average Henry Hub price in January from December, combined with expectations of below-average storage inventories through the end of 2025, led to a forecasted increase in the 2025 average price by about 65 cents compared to previous estimates.
The EIA's forecast indicates that the Henry Hub spot price will average $3.70/MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025, with an annual average of around $3.80/MMBtu. The price is expected to rise to nearly $4.20/MMBtu in 2026.
Weather is always a risk to the Henry Hub price forecast during the winter heating season, the EIA notes, and additional risks include the timing of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) production expected to come online in the next two years. Despite China’s imposition of tariffs on U.S. LNG, the EIA anticipates a limited effect on U.S. LNG exports, with any LNG not purchased by China likely being exported elsewhere due to global demand for LNG.