BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 14. In 2025, OPEC expects the US to experience steady oil demand growth, fueled by robust economic activity and strong consumer spending, Trend reports.
This growth, driven by continued investments and a healthy services sector, is expected to support the petrochemical sector and mobility. Oil demand in 1Q25 is anticipated to increase by 35,000 b/d, largely driven by rising demand for jet/kerosene and LPG.
LPG is expected to see increased demand due to the La Niña phenomenon, which is anticipated to boost heating requirements. Meanwhile, jet/kerosene is forecasted to remain strong due to sustained air travel, while demand for diesel and naphtha is expected to be subdued, partly because US manufacturing activity has not yet shown signs of significant recovery.
Looking ahead, the US economy is forecast to remain robust in 2025, with consumer spending and healthy economic activity continuing to support oil demand, OPEC says. Driving mobility and air travel are anticipated to contribute to growth, alongside the US's leading role in petrochemical feedstock demand. LPG and ethane consumption are forecast to expand, driven by ongoing demand from the petrochemical sector.
For 2025, oil demand in the US is expected to rise by 42,000 b/d to an average of 20.5 million b/d. Gasoline demand will lead this growth, increasing by 30,000 b/d y-o-y, followed by a 20,000 b/d increase in diesel and jet/kerosene demand. Petrochemical feedstocks, particularly LPG/ethane, are expected to see continued growth, though demand for naphtha is anticipated to remain limited due to a strong baseline effect.
Looking further into 2026, US oil demand growth is forecasted to continue, with a projected increase of 57,000 b/d to average 20.6 million b/d. Gasoline demand is expected to expand by 50,000 b/d, with diesel increasing by 40,000 b/d and jet/kerosene by 30,000 b/d. Although naphtha demand is forecasted to decline slightly, the overall outlook for US oil demand remains strong.
