BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 12. U.S. natural gas prices this winter have been higher than initially forecast, driven by stronger-than-expected consumption due to colder temperatures, Trend reports.
The Henry Hub spot price averaged $4.19 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in February, up from $4.13/MMBtu in January and significantly higher than projections from last October’s Winter Fuels Outlook.
Colder-than-normal weather in January and February led to increased heating demand, resulting in 33% more natural gas withdrawals from storage than previously estimated. As a result, natural gas inventories are expected to end the winter season about 10% below the five-year average, contributing to upward pressure on prices. The EIA now forecasts Henry Hub prices to average $4.20/MMBtu in 2025 - 37% higher than its October projection - and rise further to $4.50/MMBtu in 2026 as global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) grows.
New LNG export capacity is also influencing the market. Two facilities - Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 and Corpus Christi Stage 3 - began production in December 2024, with Plaquemines reaching 85% of its nominal capacity by February. Additional projects, including Golden Pass and Plaquemines Phase 2, are expected to come online in the next two years, though their timelines remain uncertain.
Despite new Chinese tariffs on U.S. LNG, the EIA expects little impact on overall exports, as U.S. cargoes can be redirected to other global markets.