ASTANA, Kazakhstan, May 5. In the first quarter
of 2025, Kazakhstan has seen a decline in all types of tax revenues
to the National Fund, which raises concerns about the fulfillment
of budget plans, Trend reports via the Association of Financiers of
Kazakhstan (AFK).
According to the data from the Association of Financiers of
Kazakhstan (AFK), total tax revenues, including funds from local
and national budgets, increased by 4.8 percent (265 billion tenge,
approximately $503 million), but the dynamics in different segments
turned out to be uneven.
"Revenues to the National Fund decreased by 47 percent, amounting to 547 billion tenge (approximately $1.04 billion). This was due to a drop in tax collections from mineral extraction taxes (MET) and corporate income tax (CIT), which fell by 85 billion tenge (approximately $161 million) and 378 billion tenge (approximately $717 million), respectively," noted AFK analysts.
The reason for the decline in revenues to the National Fund was lower average oil prices. In the first quarter of 2024, the price of a barrel was $81.8, but this year it dropped to $74.8. This significantly affected the volume of tax collections from the oil and gas sector.
AFC emphasizes that , at the same time, local and republican budgets have demonstrated positive dynamics. In local budgets there is an increase in revenues by 16 percent (292 billion tenge, about $554 million), which is due to the growth of nominal incomes of the population and an increase in the number of small and medium-sized businesses.
"In local budgets, the growth in revenues was driven by an increase in the income of small enterprises. For example, gross profit among small businesses increased by 16.9 percent in 2024," AFK analysts reported.
In the national budget, revenues also grew, primarily due to VAT and CIT, which allowed the annual tax revenue plan to be 21.1 percent completed (compared to 19.9 percent in the same period last year). However, budget expenditures failed to match the income. Expenditures in the national budget increased by 4.4 percent, but there was an underfinancing of 1.1 trillion tenge (approximately $2.09 billion). The main reason for this is the lack of funds in the cash control account, which threatens the fulfillment of social and investment programs.
According to experts, to cover the budget deficit and repay external obligations, the government was forced to attract new loans of 1.5 trillion tenge (approximately $2.85 billion), which constitutes only 17.8 percent of the annual plan. Experts predict that the volume of borrowing may increase over the remaining part of the year.
In conclusion, against the backdrop of current economic trends and low oil prices, analysts express concern about the potential reduction of the National Fund's assets. Planned withdrawals from the fund in 2025 amount to 5.25 trillion tenge (approximately $9.98 billion), which, according to experts, at current oil prices, may affect its stability.
"The decrease in revenues to the National Fund and the increase
in withdrawals amid low oil prices are alarming signals for the
country's financial stability," the AFK specialists added.
The Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) is the leading
professional organization uniting participants of the country's
financial market. It was founded in May 1999. The founders were
five largest second-tier banks and a leading insurance company:
Kazkommertsbank, Bank TuranAlem, People's Bank of Kazakhstan,
Temirbank, Bank CentrCredit, and Kazakhinstrakh.
