BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 18. The global oil refining industry is undergoing a structural transformation, with net capacity expected to expand by just 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) between 2024 and 2030, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest outlook, Trend reports.
While total refining capacity is forecast to reach 108.3 mb/d by the end of the decade, the pace of additions is slowing dramatically compared to previous decades.
The IEA notes that only 4.2 mb/d of new and expanded capacity is slated to come online through 2030, while announced closures total around 1.6 mb/d. Annual average net additions now stand at just over 400 kb/d — roughly half the rate seen in the years following the global financial crisis.
Driving this shift is weakening global demand for refined petroleum products, particularly in advanced economies where transport decarbonization policies and rising costs are forcing refiners to scale back. The Atlantic Basin — comprising Europe and North America — continues to see a structural decline in refining, with over 1 mb/d of closures expected in 2025 alone. The U.S. and Europe account for the bulk of this reduction, with 400 kb/d and 370 kb/d in capacity cuts, respectively.
By contrast, countries east of the Suez Canal — including India, China, and the Middle East — are leading refining investments. These regions are focusing on large-scale, petrochemical-integrated refineries and smaller plants geared toward domestic demand. In 2026, nearly 1.5 mb/d of new capacity will come online, largely driven by these emerging economies. That same year, the East of Suez region is set to surpass the Atlantic Basin in total refining capacity for the first time.
The IEA also highlights a shift in investment strategy. With greenfield projects largely stalled, refiners are prioritizing upgrades, expansions, and integration with petrochemical production — aiming to boost margins and product flexibility without significantly increasing crude intake.
By 2030, China will remain the world’s largest refining hub, with capacity reaching 19.5 mb/d, despite an estimated 2.2 mb/d in excess capacity. The United States is projected to follow at 17.7 mb/d, with Russia and India close behind at 7.1 mb/d and 6.8 mb/d, respectively.
