BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 25. At the end of November, Uzbekistan will once again step up as the place where the future directions of cooperation between the European Union and Central Asia are mapped out. At the Third EU-Central Asia Economic Forum in Tashkent, key attention will focus on trade, logistics, green energy, and sustainable development. However, Turkmenistan is really coming into its own on the regional stage - a country that not long ago kept its cards close to its chest but is now stepping up to the plate as a key player in the Trans-Caspian arena.
The results of the inaugural EU-Central Asia Summit in Samarkand set the stage for a fruitful partnership down the road. Turkmenistan, with its steadfast neutrality, bountiful energy resources, and one-of-a-kind geographic position, has turned into a key player in the fresh blueprint for Europe-Central Asia collaboration.
One of the strategic directions discussed in Samarkand was the development of sustainable transport links. The EU confirmed its readiness to invest up to $11.5 billion in Central Asian infrastructure under the Global Gateway program, with particular attention to the Trans-Caspian route. For Turkmenistan, this is a golden opportunity to tap into the treasure trove that is the Turkmenbashi International Seaport, which is currently capable of handling a hefty 17-18 million tons of cargo each year.
Amid the growth of cargo flow along the Trans-Caspian route - a 60-80 percent increase in 2023 alone, reaching over 2.7 million tons - Turkmenbashi is becoming a key link in the emerging Eurasian connectivity. The port, built in 2018, is already positioning itself as one of the significant logistics hubs. In a situation where Europe is looking to cast its net wider to avoid rocky roads, Turkmenistan’s significance is on the rise.
The EU explicitly noted the importance of coordination along the
Middle Corridor and emphasized the need for stability in the South
Caucasus as a key factor for project implementation. For
Turkmenistan, this opens the door to becoming a permanent
participant in regional trade, not just as transit territory, but
as a logistics operator.
Economic interaction between the EU and Turkmenistan is inseparable
from the energy dimension. The country sits pretty at fourth place
in the global arena for proven natural gas reserves - around 19-20
trillion cubic meters - positioning it as one of Europe’s shining
stars when it comes to energy security.
The Samarkand Declaration emphasizes the intention to deepen cooperation in green economy initiatives, methane emission reduction, and the transition to renewable energy. For Ashgabat, this direction is particularly significant: Turkmenistan has set a goal to raise the share of renewable energy in national electricity generation to 20 percent by 2030 - a target that directly aligns with European climate priorities.
Equally important is the potential for electricity exports. Turkmenistan already supplies power to Afghanistan, Iran, and Uzbekistan. Initiatives to expand exports westward - across the Caspian Sea and the South Caucasus - could establish a new model of energy partnership between Ashgabat and Brussels. The EU has signaled readiness to support such projects through the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), which actively develop portfolios in power generation, water resources, and energy efficiency.
A new feather in the cap arrived with the EIB and Turkmenistan's announcement of kicking off negotiations on a framework agreement, which, for the first time, will let the bank roll up its sleeves and operate directly in the country. This news is strategically significant: access to European financing opens the door to transforming national energy and transport infrastructure.
Turkmenistan’s trade turnover with the EU already reaches $1.3-1.5 billion annually, showing steady growth thanks to energy exports, textiles, and chemical products. While Europe trails China and Russia in trade volumes with Turkmenistan, European investments, especially under the Team Europe program (over $345 million for the region), create a qualitatively different level of engagement.
For Turkmenistan, which is currently trying to get its foot in the door with the World Trade Organization, aligning with the European economic model opens up a whole new ball game. This means tapping into fresh markets, getting its ducks in a row with export product standards, and cutting through the red tape of trade barriers.
The Samarkand Declaration also highlighted Turkmenistan’s proposal to strengthen the legal framework for bilateral relations, clearly demonstrating Ashgabat’s commitment to the gradual liberalization of its foreign economic policy.
At the upcoming EU-Central Asia Economic Forum, Turkmenistan will discuss concrete projects in transport, digitalization, renewable energy, and critical raw materials. In a context where Europe is seeking new sources of energy and industrial resources, and Central Asia is becoming a key link in global supply chains, Turkmenistan’s role is becoming systemic.
The Turkmenbashi port, brimming with gas reserves, is stepping up to the plate in transport initiatives and is all set to play ball with European financial institutions, positioning the country as one of the EU’s key economic partners in the region.
If Samarkand set up the groundwork for a strategic partnership, Tashkent is set to bring in the concrete economic content - with Turkmenistan stepping in as one of its key players.