BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 30. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) has revised its Brent crude oil price forecasts downward, citing escalating trade tensions, higher-than-expected OPEC+ production adjustments, and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, Trend reports.
According to the latest report, the institute now expects Brent to average $69.7 per barrel in 2025, down by $2 from its previous forecast. The 2026 forecast has also been reduced by nearly $1, to $67.8/b.
Brent crude prices fell by $4.8/b month-on-month in April, reaching $67.7/b, though still $1.5/b above the previous month's forecast. Since January, prices have declined by $11.5/b, a drop attributed largely to deteriorating trade relations and upward adjustments in OPEC+ production.
While the prompt time spreads (M1-M2) remained relatively stable in a mild backwardation of $0.7/b, the back end of the futures curve has shifted into contango, indicating a more bearish sentiment for longer-term prices.
Following a temporary de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions on May 12, daily Brent prices recovered into the mid-$60s. However, OIES now projects the average monthly Brent price in May to be $64.2/b, $3/b below the previous estimate.
As a result, Brent price forecasts for the second half of 2025 have been revised lower:
Q3 2025: cut by $3.9/b to $69.7/b
Q4 2025: cut by $2.6/b to $66.6/b
Looking ahead, OIES expects Brent to stay within a $60–70/b range throughout 2026, though it warns that risks to the outlook remain skewed to the downside due to continued global trade policy uncertainty and broader economic challenges.
In its risk-adjusted scenario, OIES projects Brent at $67.5/b in 2025 and $64/b in 2026, $2.2/b and $3.9/b lower, respectively, than its reference forecasts.
