BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 27. Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House could usher in a transformative period for the US liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry, with his pro-energy agenda likely to drive rapid infrastructure expansion, says Rystad Energy, an independent research and business intelligence company, based in Norway, Trend reports.
According to the research, Trump's policies could nearly double US LNG export capacity from 11.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) in 2023 to 22.4 Bcfd by 2030. However, this ambitious growth comes with risks, including market oversupply and geopolitical complications.
"Trump’s expected approach to deregulation and faster permitting could bolster global LNG supply, strengthening sentiment after years of uncertainty and helping unleash long-term demand," said Emily McClain, Head of North America Gas & LNG Research at Rystad Energy. However, the report warns that an untimely boost in supply could lead to a medium-term market glut, putting downward pressure on prices and threatening US competitiveness.
The report also highlights potential hurdles linked to Trump’s history of imposing tariffs, particularly the 25% steel tariff introduced in 2018. Tariffs like these significantly raised the costs of LNG projects and could do so again, jeopardizing long-term export growth. Renewed trade tensions with China could further complicate matters, potentially disrupting LNG flows as seen during the 2019 export halt.
Europe, meanwhile, could emerge as a key beneficiary of US LNG expansion, given its efforts to reduce reliance on Russian gas. Rystad Energy notes that European leaders may use increased US LNG purchases as leverage to negotiate favorable trade terms with the Trump administration. However, renewed trade tensions with China could disrupt LNG flows, a concern reminiscent of the 2019 export halt triggered by tariffs during Trump’s first term.
Trump’s anticipated policies, including fast-tracking stalled projects and expanding gas leases on federal land, could position the US as a dominant player in a global market projected to reach nearly 600 million tonnes of demand by 2030. Yet, balancing domestic growth ambitions with global market stability remains critical.
Steel tariffs, previously imposed by Trump, also loom as a challenge, potentially inflating LNG project costs and slowing contracting activity with key buyers like China. These obstacles underscore the delicate balance required to advance domestic growth while maintaining global competitiveness.
Despite these risks, Trump’s approach could capitalize on a projected supply gap of 140 million tonnes by 2035, critical as the world pivots to cleaner energy sources. According to Rystad Energy, the next four years could either mark a golden era for US LNG or exacerbate vulnerabilities in the global energy market, with long-term stability hanging in the balance.