BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov. 22
By Maryana Akhmedova – Trend:
TBC Capital’s forecast of the GDP growth in Georgia of above 10 percent for 2021 is supported by the current circumstances in the economy, Trend reports, citing the weekly report of TBC Capital.
According to the report, capital inflows to Georgia in October 2021 were strong, pointing to continued extraordinary performance in the economy.
At the same time, imports and lending declined slightly, although mainly due to a decrease in imports of cars for re-export, but also probably due to a decrease in demand for inventories compared to previous months, the report said.
According to the National Statistics Office (Geostat), the unemployment rate in Georgia in the third quarter of 2021 increased by 2.5 percentage points, compared to the same period of 2020, and equaled 19.5 percent.
The unemployment rate in the third quarter of 2021 went up year-on-year on the back of more people seeking jobs, although, the number of employment places has increased, TBC Capital said.
Meanwhile, an estimated monthly balance of net inflows in October 2021 strengthened considerably, compared to September 2021, the report said.
Furthermore, exports, imports and producer price index (PPI) went up, indicating to a stronger near term consumer price index (CPI), consequently, further reducing the short-term depreciation of the Georgian lari, TBC Capital noted.
“Turkish lira weakened further beating another record of depreciation. While we stick to our view that Georgian lari should not necessarily follow Turkish lira, some of our earlier arguments, namely the same level of real effective exchange rate of Georgian lari, does not hold to the same extent anymore,” TBC Capital added.
Consequently, despite the strengthening of Georgian lari against dollar, we do not rule out some correction, though likely up to few percentage points only, TBC Capital concluded.
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