BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 16. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Azerbaijani manat is projected to remain at 1.7 manat in 2027.
This is reflected in the Statement on the Initial Indicators of the State and Consolidated Budgets for 2027 released by Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Finance.
The Azerbaijani manat has remained at 1.7 per US dollar since March 7, 2018.
According to the statement, the macroeconomic forecasts submitted by the Ministry of Economy assume a stable manat exchange rate against the US dollar at the current-year level in 2027–2030.
Azerbaijan’s economic growth forecasts
According to forecasts presented by the Ministry of Economy in August this year, the baseline scenario assumes an average annual export price of $65 per barrel of oil in 2027–2030.
According to the forecasts, Azerbaijan’s GDP is expected to reach 141 billion manat ($82.9 billion) by the end of 2027, including 109.1 billion manat ($64.2 billion) in non-oil and gas GDP.
In 2030, GDP is expected to reach 169.1 billion manat ($99.5 billion), while non-oil and gas GDP is projected at 138.6 billion manat ($81.5 billion).
Real GDP growth is projected to average 3.3% annually over the medium term, while non-oil and gas GDP growth is expected to average 4.4%. The share of the non-oil and gas sector in GDP is expected to reach 82% by 2030.
According to the forecasts, household incomes are expected to rise to 137.1 billion manat ($80.6 billion) and expenditures to 134.1 billion manat ($78.9 billion) in 2030. Investment in fixed capital is projected to increase by 2.4% in 2027 and by an average of 2.2% annually over the medium term.
Azerbaijan expects 5.3% inflation in 2027
Annual inflation in Azerbaijan is projected at 5.3% in 2027.
The statement said that, according to the Ministry of Economy’s forecasts, average annual inflation, expected at 5.7% this year, is projected to gradually decline to 4.3% in 2030.
The forecast takes into account actual inflation during the period elapsed this year, global commodity and food price dynamics and their impact on import prices, changes in the nominal effective exchange rate index, a stable manat exchange rate, and the impact of changes in tariffs for regulated goods and services.
Azerbaijan sets 2027 budget oil price at $65
The average annual selling price of one barrel of Azeri Light crude oil was set at $65 when preparing Azerbaijan’s state and consolidated budget drafts for 2027.
This is the same as the price assumed for 2026.
State budget revenues are projected at 39.234 billion manat ($23.079 billion) in 2027, equivalent to 27.8% of GDP.
Of state budget revenues, 15.48 billion manat ($9.106 billion), or 39.5%, is expected to come from the oil and gas sector, while 23.754 billion manat ($13.973 billion), or 60.5%, is projected to come from the non-oil and gas sector.
State budget spending is projected at 42.4 billion manat ($24.941 billion) in 2027, up 696.4 million manat ($409.6 million), or 1.7%, from the approved figure for 2026. Compared with the 2025 execution figure, spending is projected to increase by 3.7954 billion manat ($2.232 billion), or 9.8%.
Of state budget spending, 26.4 billion manat ($15.529 billion), or 62.3%, will be allocated to current expenditures, 13.8 billion manat ($8.118 billion), or 32.5%, to capital expenditures, and 2.2 billion manat ($1.294 billion), or 5.2%, to servicing public debt and liabilities.
The state budget deficit is projected at 3.166 billion manat ($1.862 billion) in 2027, up 71.4 million manat ($42 million), or 2.3%, from the approved figure for 2026. The budget deficit is expected to account for 2.2% of GDP.
Of the deficit, 2.751 billion manat ($1.618 billion) is planned to be financed through borrowing, 275 million manat ($161.8 million) from the balance of the single treasury account, and 140 million manat ($82.4 million) from privatization proceeds.
Consolidated budget revenues and spending
Consolidated budget revenues are projected at 47.6088 billion manat ($28.005 billion) in 2027, up 2.6395 billion manat ($1.553 billion), or 5.9%, from the approved figure for 2026.
Consolidated budget spending is projected at 50.3867 billion manat ($29.639 billion), up 1.5474 billion manat ($910.2 million), or 3.2%, from the approved figure for 2026.
As a result, the consolidated budget deficit is projected at 2.7779 billion manat ($1.634 billion) in 2027.
Main sources of state budget revenues
In 2027, 18.43 billion manat ($10.841 billion) in state budget revenues is expected to be collected through the State Tax Service, accounting for 47% of total state budget revenues.
Of the revenues collected through the State Tax Service, 14.85 billion manat ($8.735 billion), or 80.6%, is expected to come from the non-oil and gas sector, while 3.58 billion manat ($2.106 billion), or 19.4%, is projected to come from the oil and gas sector.
Revenues collected through the State Customs Committee are projected at 6.865 billion manat ($4.038 billion).
In addition, 11.9 billion manat ($7 billion), or 30.3%, of state budget revenues is planned to come from a transfer from the State Oil Fund. Dividends from enterprises in which the state holds shares are expected to account for 855 million manat ($502.9 million), or 2.2%, while 599 million manat ($352.4 million), or 1.5%, is projected to come from extrabudgetary revenues of budget-funded organizations, and 585 million manat ($344.1 million), or 1.5%, from other revenues.
Main state budget expenditures
In 2027, the largest allocations from the state budget are planned for economic activity, defense and national security, general public services, education, and social protection.
Spending on economic activity is projected at 8.891 billion manat ($5.23 billion), defense and national security at 8.8164 billion manat ($5.186 billion), general public services at 5.5063 billion manat ($3.239 billion), education at 5.0982 billion manat ($2.999 billion), and social protection and social security at 4.916 billion manat ($2.892 billion).
Healthcare spending is expected to total 3.9628 billion manat ($2.331 billion) in the consolidated budget, including 2.0826 billion manat ($1.225 billion) from the state budget.
Spending on the judiciary, law enforcement and prosecution is projected at 3.4336 billion manat ($2.02 billion), agriculture at 1.3795 billion manat ($811.5 million), environmental protection at 438.7 million manat ($258.1 million), and culture, arts, information, physical education and youth policy at 645.2 million manat ($379.5 million).
Spending on housing and communal services is projected at 335 million manat ($197.1 million), while expenditures on services not classified under the main sections are expected to total 857.6 million manat ($504.5 million).
